The Padres had a chance to knock out the Dodgers in the National League Division Series. It didn't happen.
In past years a loss like this, where they had a 2-1 series lead and didn't score a run over their final 24 innings, would have constituted "missing their chance."
That is not the case for this version of the Friars.
The Padres that finished 2024 with 93 wins and a Wild Card Series win over the Braves are going to look extremely similar in 2025, and that's a good thing.
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"Definitely. We have a strong core over here. The sky's the limit, and I have no doubt we're going to be knocking on the door every single year," said All-Star right fielder Fernando Tatis Jr. "I can't wait."
Obviously, every team goes through changes year-to-year because it's impossible to keep an entire roster together, even one as closely knit as the Padres clubhouse became this year.
"I want as many back as possible," says All-Star centerfielder Jackson Merrill. "I understand the business. I understand we don't get all the guys back, but I'm excited for the people that are here on. We're going to keep building the family, keep getting closer and accept all the new guys that are coming into next year. I'm excited for that."
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The good news is: This team has one of the most complete rosters in the game, and with only a few guys who are not under contractual control for next year, even a free agent defection or two won't create massive holes to fill. Here's how San Diego's salary structure looks in terms of the Competitive Balance Tax and how much room they might have to maneuver.
PADRES 2025 SALARIES (COMPETITIVE BALANCE TAX)
UNDER CONTRACT
- Xander Bogaerts: $25,454,545
- Yu Darvish: $18,000,000
- Fernando Tatis Jr.: $24,285,714
- Joe Musgrove: $20,000,000
- Manny Machado: $31,818,182
- Jake Cronenworth: $11,428,571
- Robert Suarez: $9,200,000
- Yuki Matsui: $5,600,000
- Wandy Peralta (player option): $4,125,000
TOTAL=$149,912,012
ARBITRATION ESTIMATES (average of MLB Trade Rumors and Spotrac projections)
- Luis Arraez: $14,150,000
- Dylan Cease: $13,375,000
- Michael King: $9,300,000
- Jason Adam: $5,000,000
- Adrian Morejon: $1,950,000
- Luis Campusano: $1,760,000
- Tyler Wade: $900,000
- Luis Patino: $800,000
TOTAL=$47,235,000
PRE-ARBITRATION (avg. $800,000)
- Jackson Merrill
- Jeremiah Estrada
- Bryan Hoeing
- Alek Jacob
- Randy Vasquez
- Jhony Brito
- Sean Reynolds
- Stephen Kolek
- Matt Waldron
TOTAL=$7,200,000
RETAINED SALARY
Eric Hosmer $17,260,000 (final year)
COMBINED TOTAL=$221,607,012
CBT THRESHOLD=$241,000,000
Assuming Ha-Seong Kim declines the $7 million option for next season, that leaves them with right around $19,392,988 to play with. You'd have to figure a good chunk of that is going to go to at least one of their free agents, and you already know who that is.
PENDING FREE AGENTS
- Jurickson Profar
- David Peralta
- Donovan Solano
- Kyle Higashioka
- Tanner Scott
- Martin Perez
Profar and the city of San Diego were made for each other. He signed a $1 million deal to come back to his adopted hometown (and actually earned $2.5 million by hitting performance incentives) and earned himself a hefty raise with his first All-Star season. Both the Padres and Profar have expressed a desire to keep him in town, so odds are that deal gets done.
Kyle Higashioka is another guy who should be a top priority. The 34-year-old catcher had the best year of his life, both at the plate and behind it. Re-upping him for a couple of years would build the perfect bridge to top prospect Ethan Salas when he's ready for the big leagues in a year or two.
Peralta and Solano are veterans who arrived as castoffs from other organizations who then thrived in San Diego's clubhouse. If the prices are right, they would be fantastic depth pieces to bring back. Ditto Perez, who found new life after a trade deadline deal and could help ease the loss of Musgrove (out for a year after elbow reconstruction surgery).
The only guy who likely won't return is Scott. He's pitched his way into a lucrative deal that's likely out of the Padres' budget ... unless, of course, they decide to go back over the CBT threshold. They reset their payroll this year, so if they go over $241 million, the penalties are relatively not too bad. There's also the everlasting possibility that general manager A.J. Preller swings a few trades or signs someone from the open market this winter.
So, a year from now, this Padres team that showed the baseball world it's talented enough to win a World Series will be loaded again. Heck, the skipper thinks it might even be better.
"We compete with all we have, and what we have is really good," says manager Mike Shildt. "We've got a good foundation moving forward. I don't expect this to be a one-off. I firmly expect this group to come back and be ready to go for the consecutive playoff run for two, three, four years. It'll be historic in San Diego baseball."
