NBC 7’s Derek Togerson gets us ready with a look at how the West can be won.
Last Monday afternoon, before the Padres started their final homestand of the season with a series against the Astros, starting pitcher Joe Musgrove was asked about the chances of securing a playoff spot. The implication was earning a Wild Card berth, maybe even hosting a first-round series.
Musgrove revealed grander aspirations.
"I think our sights are still set on challenging for the division and getting into a spot where those three games in L.A. can dictate the division," Musgrove said.
Your San Diego Padres
Get top local stories in San Diego delivered to you every morning. Sign up for NBC San Diego's News Headlines newsletter.
The San Diego native might be a prophet. The Padres won five of six games, setting up something that would have seemed absurd to even fathom in March: With six games left in the season the Padres control whether they win their first National League West Division championship since 2006. Of course, so do the Dodgers, which makes this week so darn exciting.
San Diego and Los Angeles open a three-game series on Tuesday night at Dodger Stadium that is dripping with intrigue and possibility. The Padres need one more win to secure a playoff berth, something the Dodgers already own.
L.A. leads the Friars by 3.0 games, so if they win just one game, the Dodgers will emerge from the series in first place. However, if San Diego sweeps, they will be sitting atop the division standings because they own the season series tiebreaker by virtue of their 7-3 record in their first 10 meetings.
(After that, of course, there are still three games remaining for both teams [Padres vs. Diamondbacks; Dodgers take on the Rockies], the outcome of which may be necessary to determine the division leader.)
Obviously, winning three straight on the road against L.A., one of the best teams in baseball, is a tall order, but the Friars have a chance.
"That's all you can ask for," says Padres manager Mike Shildt, who should be in the running for National League Manager of the Year honors. "And that's what this is about. It's about us taking care of our business, and we're not looking for anything other than what we can control."
What gives the Friar Faithful hope for a sweep is the fact the Padres are not the same team now that they were in those first 10 games. They're a whole lot better.
So, let's break down these two 90-plus win juggernauts and see who has the edge heading into the most important stretch of the year.
STARTING PITCHING
The mound matchups for this heavyweight fight look like this:
Tuesday: RHP Michael King (12-9, 3.04 ERA) vs. RHP Landon Knack (3-4, 3.39 ERA)
Wednesday : RHP Dylan Cease (14-11, 3.42 ERA) vs. RHP Jack Flaherty (13-7, 3.10 ERA)
Thursday : RHP Joe Musgrove (6-5, 3.95 ERA) vs. RHP Walker Buehler (1-6, 5.63 ERA)
King has been stellar of late, allowing just four earned runs in his last 18 innings, while Knack is a 27-year-old rookie who has shown flashes but lacked consistency.
The real pitchers duel will come on Wednesday between two All-Stars. Cease might have the edge coming off 8.1 innings of shutout ball against Houston, the highest scoring team in the American League.
Musgrove's numbers are skewed because he was battling elbow issues for the first half of the season. Since coming off the Injured List for good in August, he has been one of the best pitchers in baseball. Take out one absolute fluke of an inning where he allowed six runs to the Giants and his numbers in August and September are incredible: 43.0 innings, 0.84 ERA, 51 K, 7 BB.
That is Cy Young-level stuff. He's facing Walker Buehler, who is struggling mightily coming off a Tommy John surgery.
ADVANTAGE: Padres, in a big, big way
BULLPEN
What's kind of wild to think about is the last time these foes met was a quick two-game set on July 30-31, which the Padres swept. Those last two games bridged the MLB Trade Deadline, when San Diego completely revamped its relief corps.
So while the Dodgers have a slightly better bullpen ERA (3.66 to 3.75), that's not indicative of the Padres adding Tanner Scott, Jason Adam and Bryan Hoeing at the deadline and the emergence of Jeremiah Estrada as a reliable high-leverage arm.
Plus: With all the injuries the Dodgers rotation has suffered, their relievers have been asked to cover 62.2 more innings than San Diego's, adding to fears the L.A. arms are wearing down in the final week of the year.
ADVANTAGE: Padres, but only slightly
OFFENSE
Here we have two very different approaches and both can be extremely effective.
The Dodgers will try to bludgeon you to death. Led by Shohei Ohtani, who joins Aaron Judge as the greatest offensive threats in the game, they rely on the long ball. L.A. leads the league in home runs and slugging percentage.
The Padres will beat you with relentless body blows. San Diego leads the NL in batting average and hits, and they have the fewest strikeouts in the game. They put the ball in play and force the other team's defense to make plays. Obviously, both philosophies have worked this year.
ADVANTAGE: Dodgers, by the slimmest of margins because of Ohtani's presence
DEFENSE
Defensive statistics in baseball are still a work in progress. For example, Baseball Savant's Outs Above Average metric shows Xander Bogaerts has been +5 while Mookie Betts is -4.
I'm sorry, that just does not pass the eye test. So, we'll go old-school and overly simplistic here. The Padres have made 16 fewer errors in the same number of games.
ADVANTAGE: Padres
MANAGER
Mike Shildt has won 90 games in each of the first three full seasons he's been a big league skipper. The last guy to have that kind of success early in his managerial career is: Dave Roberts.
Both of these guys are incredible managers. Both have the trust of their players and understand how to pull the right strings during a game. It's impossible to choose between the two; I'd take either to lead my team any day.
ADVANTAGE: Wash
When you break it down piece-by-piece it becomes clear: The Padres, at this time of year and with their current construction, have the edge over the Dodgers.
It's hard to predict a sweep, but if there ever was a chance to do that, this is that chance for San Diego. First pitch for all three games at Dodger Stadium is 7:10 pm.
This is gonna be fun.
