San Diego Padres’ Manny Machado (L) celebrates with teammates after hitting a three-run home run in the ninth inning of the 2024 MLB Seoul Series baseball game 2 between Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres at the Gocheok Sky Dome in Seoul on March 21, 2024. (Photo by Jung Yeon-je / AFP) (Photo by JUNG YEON-JE/AFP via Getty Images)
Ladies and gentlemen, it’s baseball season.
Opening Day is set for Thursday and before the first pitch at Petco Park, the Padres are already tied for the best record in baseball. It’s also the only record in baseball but they’re not trailing the Dodgers yet so let’s call that a W.
After an off-season full of change around the league who will be the last team standing?
Here’s a (slightly) educated guess on how the 2024 MLB season is going to shake out, complete with division standings, results of each playoff round, and postseason award winners.
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National League West
1) Los Angeles 110-52
2) Padres 91-71 (WC)
3) Arizona 88-74 (WC)
4) San Francisco 86-76
5) Colorado 52-110
Nobody on earth is under the illusion that anyone but the Dodgers are going to win the West. They have too many stars, their lineup is too deep, and the questions in the starting rotation (which are not insignificant) will likely be answered by the end of the year when Clayton Kershaw and Walker Buehler return from injury. LA should run away and hide with the regular season title.
However … as we’ve seen time and again the postseason is a different Hollywood script. The Padres don’t have the same expectations in 2024, nor should they. But, their starting rotation is deeper and there’s a lot less noise around the organization. It’s unrealistic to think All-Stars like Manny Machado, Xander Bogaerts, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Jake Cronenworth will have two straight sub-par (by their standards) seasons. San Diego is going to the playoffs again.
The Diamondbacks added some nice pieces and Corbin Carroll should just keep getting better. But, the pure star power is not there like it is in LA or San Diego. The defending NL Pennant winners will be back in the same position they were last year: the last team into the playoffs but a club that can make a whole lot of noise when they get there.
The Giants have a new skipper and, when Robbie Ray is back from injury, a formidable starting rotation (although Blake Snell’s history suggests he’s not going to be very good until some time in June, at the earliest). I don’t think the additions of Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, and Jung Hoo Lee will be enough to take an offense that struggled down the stretch a year ago to a championship level.
The Rockies are a mess with an owner who doesn’t care about winning. Bud Black should get hazard pay.
On Friar
National League Central
1) Cincinnati 87-75
2) Chicago 86-76
3) St. Louis 85-77
4) Pittsburgh 81-81
5) Milwaukee 76-86
This division lacks an elite team and several clubs are bunched together so I’ll take a gamble and go with Cincinnati. The Reds have young talent coming out their ears. Shoot, in 2023 they had three different players receive Rookie of the Year votes. It might be a year early to expect this but if all the youngsters play to their potential they have a chance to win the Central.
The Cubs don’t look terribly different than they did a year ago. They signed lefty Shoto Imanaga from Japan to shore up the starting rotation but other than that the most significant move was hiring Craig Counsell as the manager. Chicago is going to be the popular pick to win the division but there’s something that I just can’t put my finger on that feels like they’re very solid, but not spectacular.
The Cardinals cannot possibly be as bad this year as they were in 2023. They signed a ton of veteran pitchers to shore up the rotation. While Sonny Gray is stellar, Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson are steady contributors but not true difference-makers anymore. If everyone stays healthy St. Louis is a contender. If not, it’s going to be another long year in Missouri.
Eventually, at some point, the Pirates have to get back to respectability. I like a lot of their young position players and Andrew McCutchen is a fantastic veteran to show everyone how to act like big leaguers. This might be the season they finally start to get to the point where they’re a viable franchise again.
The Brewers let Counsell go and traded Corbin Burnes to Baltimore. Pat Murphy is the new manager. Brandon Woodruff will miss the season with an injury. This is going to be a rough season for the Brew Crew.
National League East
1) Atlanta 112-50
2) Philadelphia 92-70 (WC)
3) Miami 87-75
4) New York 80-82
5) Washington 70-92
The Dodgers made all the headlines. The Braves are still the best team in baseball. Atlanta has an All-Star at almost every position and a deeper starting rotation, and that’s even if Chris Sale doesn’t make 25 or so starts. The Braves won’t grab as many headlines as other clubs but they’re going to win more games than anybody else.
The Phillies are dangerous again. Very dangerous. Bryce Harper has taken to 1st base seamlessly and Zack Wheeler is a Cy Young Award candidate. But, they’re also getting older fast. Philadelphia’s championship window is starting to close so they’re going to feel the pressure to make it happen this season.
The Marlins have more solid pieces than most people realize. The problem has been keeping them healthy and finding enough depth. Jazz Chisolm and Sandy Alcantara have both fought injuries. If they can keep their players on the field they’re going to make things uncomfortable for other teams in the Wild Card race.
The Mets are, amazingly, going to have to either commit to a rebuild or get a bunch of pieces at the trade deadline. My guess is they go with the former. Pete Alonso very likely finishes the season somewhere else as New York looks to the off-season to fix whatever has gone wrong in Queens.
The Nationals are still in rebuild mode but some of their young talent is starting to blossom. CJ Abrams looks like a future All-Star. Things will be better soon in DC but for this season they’re still looking up at everyone else in the East.
American League West
1) Houston 91-71
2) Texas 90-62 (WC)
3) Seattle 88-74 (WC)
4) Los Angeles 76-86
5) Oakland 55-107
I could make an argument for any of the top three on this list to win the division. Houston and Texas both have veteran starters who are going to miss substantial time but can score runs in bunches. Seattle’s starting rotation has at least three Cy Young candidates but Julio Rodriguez doesn’t have a whole lot of help in the lineup.
The Astros probably have fewer question marks to start the year and a stronger bullpen than the defending world champs so I’ll give them a slight edge. The Rangers should be able to club teams to death and win some shootouts until Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer are back. Both of those teams will be better at the end of the season than they are at the start.
But, I just don’t see where the Mariners are going to get enough offense unless they make some deadline moves, which drops them into the Wild Card contender category.
The Angels need to just trade Mike Trout and start a full-blown rebuild but they don’t seem to understand that. If they finally come to their senses and understand they’re wasting the career of one of the greatest players of this generation and make him available at the deadline it will be one of the most exciting Julys of all time.
Oakland’s owner is not even trying anymore, which is sad for that fan base. That mess is probably not going to get cleaned up any time soon.
American League Central
1) Minnesota 88-74
2) Cleveland 81-81
3) Kansas City 78-84
4) Detroit 76-86
5) Chicago 60-102
The Twins wouldn’t even win 88 games if their division was not truly hideous. Minnesota lost Cy Young runner up Gray to the Cardinals and really didn’t replace him. They’re more or less the best of a bad group and really the only team in the division with enough talent to make the playoffs.
The Guardians have Jose Ramirez and a bunch of question marks in the lineup and the trade speculation around Shane Bieber is going to last until after the All-Star break (barring an early deal being done).
The Royals are back on the right track and made some really nice moves. They added Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to add a pair of veterans to the rotation. Salvador Perez is still amazing and making a commitment to Bobby Witt Jr. was absolutely the right thing to do. They’ll be better than most people think.
The Tigers have been drafting early for a while now and a lot of those pieces are starting to reach the Majors. I really would not be surprised if they reached .500 this year but they’re still a little ways away from really being contenders, even in this division.
The White Sox are embarking upon their 18th rebuild since 2005. I have no idea why it’s not working there but they are not going to be a factor for anything but a top-3 draft pick.
American League East
1) Baltimore 100-62
2) New York 92-70 (WC)
3) Toronto 87-75
4) Tampa Bay 86-76
5) Boston 75-87
The Orioles arrived a lot earlier than anyone expected, then added Corbin Burnes to the rotation. Baltimore has so much talent on the roster that Jackson Holliday, the number one prospect in the game who’s had a great spring (.954 OPS in the Grapefruit League), couldn’t crack the Opening Day roster. They should finish with the best record in the American League without much of a challenge.
The Yankees lineup is borderline scary … as long as it stays healthy. The rotation is full of talented veteran arms … as long as it stays healthy. I think New York will get better health luck this time around and host a playoff series.
The Blue Jays know what they’re getting from Bo Bichette but after that it’s a lot of boom or bust guys. For example, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could win the MVP or make you wonder why doesn’t look like the MVP. I haven’t seen it all put together yet and don’t have a whole lot of faith they’ll do it this year.
The Rays always find pitching. I mean, ALWAYS. But this season just seems like too big a hill to climb. They traded Tyler Glasnow and have several other starters on the shelf with injuries. Zach Eflin might be their only projected starter who’s healthy on Opening Day. That’s too much to ask a team to overcome in a division as good as the AL East.
The Red Sox can’t seem to figure out what they are right now but there’s a chance Eastlake HS alum Marcelo Mayer makes his big league debut this year so at least us here in San Diego might have a reason to keep a curious eye on Beantown in 2024.
Playoffs – National League
WILD CARD:
(3) Reds vs (6) Diamondbacks = Arizona wins 2-0
(4) Phillies vs (5) Padres = San Diego wins 2-1
NLDS:
(1) Braves vs (6) Diamondbacks = Atlanta wins 3-1
(2) Dodgers vs (5) Padres = San Diego wins 3-2
NLCS:
Braves beat Padres 4-1
Playoffs – American League
WILD CARD:
(3) Twins vs (6) Mariners = Seattle wins 2-1
(4) Yankees vs (5) Rangers = Texas wins 2-1
ALDS:
(1) Orioles vs (6) Martiners = Baltimore wins 3-1
(2) Astros vs (5) Rangers = Texas wins 3-2
ALCS:
Rangers beat Orioles 4-3
World Series:
Braves beat Rangers 4-2
National League Award Winners
MVP = Mookie Betts, LAD
Cy Young = Spencer Strider, ATL
Rookie of the Year = Jackson Chourio, MIL
Manager of the Year = Mike Shildt, SDP
Comeback Player = Edwin Diaz, NYM
I hate the fact Mookie Betts plays for the Dodgers because I absolutely love the man. He plays the game the way it should be played, a superstar who handles any position he’s asked to play. Oh, and he’s really, really, really, ridiculously good at all of them.
Strider is a monster who I would have voted for over Blake Snell a year ago. I think he’s ready to start carving out a Braves mound legacy like Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz did before him.
I really wanted to put another Jackson in this spot. Merrill looks like he’s going to have a fabulous career but learning a position as challenging as centerfield on the fly is asking a lot of anyone so the Brewers 20-year-old phenom gets the nod.
Shildt will put the Padres back in the postseason by keeping the clubhouse all together. A team that improves by nearly 10 games year over year AFTER trading Juan Soto should make him a lock for skipper of the year.
Diaz is a fairly easy pick. He’s one of the best closers in the game and missed all of last year with a knee injury. If he looks anything like his old self, he’s a shoe-in for Comeback Player of the Year.
American League Award Winners
MVP = Juan Soto, NYY
Cy Young = Framber Valdez, HOU
Rookie of the Year = Evan Carter, TEX
Manager of the Year = Joe Espada, HOU
Comeback Player = Anthony Rizzo, NYY
Juan Soto is entering free agency. He’s going to put up ridiculous numbers at Yankee Stadium. I mean, stupid, crazy, gaudy numbers. It won’t help New York win the division but he’ll earn himself a nice payday.
Valdez has been great for a handful of years but overshadowed by superstars like Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. But, many of the AL’s frontline starters are dealing with some kind of injury to start the season to Valdez will have a chance to win some hardware.
Carter was a big reason the Rangers won the World Series. At one point in the postseason he was hitting 3rd in the Texas order, sandwiched between Corey Seager and Adolis Garcia. It’s hard to believe he still has rookie status in 2024.
Dusty Baker is a Hall of Famer who retired after last year. If the Astros keep on humming the new guy will get a lot of credit for it.
Rizzo suffered a concussion in a May collision with Fernando Tatis Jr. and was never the same after that, putting up the worst numbers of his career before. He says he’s fully recovered and if Rizzo’s Spring Training numbers (1.127 OPS) are any indication he’s going to be a real problem for opposing pitchers in 2024.
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