Southern California has been shaken by a series of earthquakes in recent weeks, raising concerns among residents about whether a major quake might be approaching sooner rather than later.
“Certainly having small earthquakes helps us understand the behavior of the fault, but it can not tell you anything about prediction, yet,” says Geoscientist and Civil Engineer Ignacio Sepulveda.
Although the exact time, location, and magnitude of an earthquake remain unpredictable, Sepulveda explains that science and historical data can help assess the likelihood of future seismic activity, which is crucial for improving infrastructure.
“Because we know how frequent we can have earthquakes of a given magnitude, we can use that information to design our cities, because that information of recurrences can be translated to probabilities to have an earthquake. Those probabilities can be used to design buildings, to design ports …” Sepulveda added.
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By applying this knowledge to urban planning, Sepulveda says we can better prepare for the realities of seismic risk.
”Here in San Diego, we need to understand that the last big earthquake that happened in southern San Andreas fault happened in 1680, that was an earthquake of magnitude of 7.8 … that area typically has an earthquake every 140-150 years, that means that place can trigger an earthquake at anytime and we need to be ready when that day comes,” Sepulveda explained.
Besides the long-overdue quake on the southern San Andreas Fault, San Diego County also has parallel faults that could be less powerful but potentially more destructive.
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“Those faults, while they can generate earthquakes between 6.0 or 6.5 magnitude, the problem is that they are very close to the city and therefore they can still create a lot of damage,” Sepulveda warned.
How to prepare for an earthquake
To prepare, Sepulveda advises, “Rather than getting worried, you need to act as always and try to get ready for an earthquake that can happen any time.”
You can prepare by having an emergency plan, stocking up on water and non-perishable food for at least three days, preparing an emergency kit, keeping cash on hand, establishing a family meeting point, and securing large furniture in your home.
