There are two weeks left in the Major League Baseball season and the Padres are not simply part of the playoff picture; they're front row at the Eras Tour taking selfies with Taylor Swift.
Statistical models suggest, with 12 games left to play, the Padres have at least a 95% chance of making it to the postseason. Here's what the National League Wild Card standings look like as the Friars get ready to open their final homestand of the year:
The Cubs are there because Chicago is technically alive but there are realistically only four teams left going after three postseason spots, and this is where we get to start talking about Magic Numbers.
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A Magic Number in baseball parlance is the distance a team is from clinching a spot in the playoffs. Right now the Padres Magic Number is 10. When it reaches zero, they are in the postseason. How it drops to zero is both simple and, this year, a bit convoluted.
Every time they win that number drops by one. That's the easy part. Every time the last team outside the playoff bubble loses that number also dips by one. With both the Mets and the Braves tied for the last playoff spot, the Padres number will drop each time one of them loses (if they remain tied) or when the team that falls behind the other one loses.
For example, if the Mets beat the Nationals and the Braves lose to the Dodgers on Monday, then the Padres Magic Number will go to nine, but then only Atlanta losses will make it dwindle any further because New York will be alone in the final playoff position (I hope this is making something resembling sense).
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All that being said, the question San Diego sports fans have is: when can we officially celebrate a playoff appearance?
The earliest it could possibly happen is Saturday, September 21, the penultimate home game at Petco Park against the truly awful Chicago White Sox. But, that would take the perfect scenario playing out where the Padres win their next five games, including a sweep of the Astros, and either the Mets or Braves lose five in a row.
Obviously, the odds of both those things happening are not great. Realistically, we can expect the Padres to go at least 4-2 on their final homestand. Atlanta finishes a series with the Dodgers at home on Monday then starts a 6-game road trip through Cincinnati and Miami. New York has a three-game set at home against Washington then hosts Philadelphia, the team with the best record in baseball, for four games.
The Braves have the easier road here so, if they can go 5-2 during that stretch while the Mets go 4-3, then by the time the Friars head to Los Angeles to start a three-game series on September 24 their Magic Number would be down to three. That same day the Mets and Braves open a series in Atlanta, guaranteeing somebody is gonna lose.
So, the odds are looking very solid that the Padres will be celebrating a postseason appearance by making an alcohol-soaked mess of the visitor's clubhouse at Dodger Stadium with four or five games left to play.
Actually, speaking of L.A., the Friars are only 3.5 games back of the Dodgers in the National League West so it's not out of the question that the Padres pass L.A. and win the division ... but let's just take this one step at a time.
