By the year 2100, the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico could experience a rise in temperature that could impact sharks, tuna and other predators, according to a study led by Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), San Diego State University and NOAA Fisheries.
”What we’re seeing is this rise, a linear increase in ocean temperature,” Rebecca Lewison, a biology professor at San Diego State University, and co-author of the study, told NBC 7 Wednesday.
Using three decades of satellite and oceanographic modeling, researchers found that temperatures across these oceans could be 1-6 degrees Celsius warmer by 2100 because of climate change-driven shifts. The study, funded by NASA, has taken a deeper dive into what the future might look like in these oceans.
“By combining satellite data, like NASA’s satellite data, that we use with the information that we have on animals in the ocean, we know so much about the changes that are happening, so we don’t want to create a sort of one-size-fits-all approach,” Lewison said. “The science is really there to support dynamic management in all oceans.”
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“These changes are having really big impacts on these top predators’ species,” Lewison said.
The study focused on 12 migratory fish predators, including three species of shark, four billfish species and five tuna species, and how rising ocean temperatures could affect where they live.
Lewison says fisheries have been noticing this change for decades. If these fish are moving to new areas, fisheries will have to adapt.
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“And for some species, we’re seeing really dramatic shifts, like on the order of hundreds of kilometers,” Lewison said.
“If you come out of a particular port and that species is no longer within hundreds of miles of where you normally fish, that has a huge impact economically,” Lewison said.
The study goes beyond what’s happening under the sea's surface and dives into the ripple effect habitat shifts could have socioeconomically.
“Our study is not just about the animals, it’s also about fisheries because we’re really focused on making sure our fishing communities’ fishermen and fisheries are sustainable in the United States,” Lewison said.
In a press release on the research, the study's author, Camrin Braun, an assistant scientist and marine ecologist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), said the research has multiple focuses. Not only does it examine how fish and marine ecosystems will be impacted, but how it will affect people, coastal communities and commercial fisheries.
“Climate change is expected to fundamentally change the status quo for where these species are and how they live. While we don’t really understand all the details of what that fundamental change might look like, this study is a good step in the direction of trying to nail down what those changes might be, so that we can do something about it,” Braun said in a press release.
Lewison says in her work, she’s seen similar trends in the Pacific Ocean adding that species of tuna, shark and swordfish could also be impacted.
”In the Pacific, we’re seeing similar patterns but not the same, because we tend to see more swings in the ocean temperatures,” Lewison said.
A reminder, she says, that shifts have already happened.
“So the work that we’ve been doing is to ... change the conversation so we’re talking about ocean management dynamically,” Lewison said.
A conversation on how to adapt to a changing climate.
“We can’t do business as usual,” Lewison said. “We have to recognize it’s here now and these ocean temperatures and other conditions will continue to change in the near future.”
