The Super Bowl owns Sunday. Come Monday, it's baseball season again.
February 13 is the day pitchers and catchers who are participating in the World Baseball Classic have to be in camp but listening to a bunch of Padres during their recent FanFest event, we can expect to see a gaggle of guys there bright and early to start putting their work in.
2023 is supposed to be a banner year for the Padres. They are on the shortest of lists of legitimate World Series contenders. The quest to be playing on Halloween begins on Valentine's Day. The 6-week extravaganza that is Spring Training won't win a championship. But, if too much goes haywire, it can certainly sink any championship dreams. With that in mind here are five of the big things to keep an eye on as the Padres get going in Peoria.
1) WBC: Storm Cloud or Silver Lining?
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The World Baseball Classic was last held in 2017. That was a time when the Padres didn't have enough good players to worry about losing guys for long stretches of Spring Training to represent their countries. Now, they're flush with studs from around the globe. San Diego will have no fewer than 10 players (spread across six countries) in the WBC, and that's after Nick Martinez stepped away from Team USA to focus on building up a starter's workload with the Padres. The list of 10 is:
Colombia: Julio Teheran, Nabil Crismatt
Dominican Republic: Juan Soto, Luis Garcia, Manny Machado, Nelson Cruz (Team General Manager)
Japan: Yu Darvish
Korea: Ha-Seong Kim
Netherlands: Xander Bogaerts
Puerto Rico: Seth Lugo
This in an interesting group. Some guys like Darvish and all the Dominican players already know where they slot into the starting lineup. Others, like Teheran and Crismatt, are trying to earn spots so they'll likely have to be extremely impressive early in Spring Training then continue that through the WBC to crack the Opening Day roster. Plus, there's the always present risk of injury with guys playing meaningful games a lot earlier than they're used to.
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"(They players are) getting ready so quickly to play games and then there's a 162-game season ahead of you," says Padres manager Bob Melvin. "The one thing you worry about a little bit when they're not with you is the injury component. But, that's something you can't control."
The other side of the coin is, a lot of guys who wouldn't usually get major reps are going to get major reps. Melvin says the club will likely allow some of their minor leaguers to spend extra time with the big club, exposing them to what real Major League Baseball is like and potentially accelerating their development. One guy fans will want to keep an eye on is shortstop Jackson Merrill, their 1st round pick from 2021 who has shot up prospect ranking boards and has been invited to his first big league camp.
So, it will take a lot of trust that the WBC guys are getting all their work in ... but it could set up the franchise for more success down the road. Hopefully it's both and this is a win-win scenario.
2) Shortstops, Shortstops, Everywhere
The Padres have A LOT of shortstops. On any given day they could be starting a guy who's been a successful shortstop at 1st base (Jake Cronenworth), 2nd base (Ha-Seong Kim), 3rd base (Manny Machado), actual shortstop (Xander Bogaerts), and a corner outfield spot (Fernando Tatis Jr.). Oh, and starting catcher Austin Nola was such a good shortstop in college that as a freshman at LSU his arrival pushed future MLB batting champion DJ Lemaheiu over to 2nd base.
And what does that say about the Padres roster construction?
"I think it just says AJ (Preller) really likes shortstops," says Cronenworth, chuckling.
That is extremely true. AJ has long believed that stacking the system with shortstops and seeing who can stick at the position then moving them around accordingly is a good way to strengthen organizational depth.
What's interesting about this group is the positional flexibility it creates. Last year Kim was a Gold Glover finalist at short but will likely be moving over a spot to make room for Bogaerts, a 2-time Gold Glove finalist. Cronenworth can play any position on the field except MAYBE catcher. Machado would be one of the game's better defensive shortstops if he wasn't one of the best defensive 3rd basemen of all time and Tatis might be the most athletic of them all.
The beautiful thing about it is it gives the skipper a whole bunch of options to mix, match, and rest guys without worrying about any defensive degradation.
"We're going to have a very talented infield with some versatility," says Melvin. "Obviously, a lot of range. With the lack of shifting this year it's obviously going to become that much more important to have athletic guys in your infield. It gives us a lot of options and I know, speaking with our guys, they just want to win and they realize they might be moving around a little bit this year."
Getting a read on where everyone will be playing and how often they move around will be one of the more fascinating parts of Spring Training 2023.
3) How Many Starting Pitchers Does it Take to Change a Lightbulb?
A year ago the Padres used a 6-man starting rotation with great results. The starters were more fresh for the post-season run, where Darvish and Joe Musgrove were both phenomenal. San Diego could go with a 6-man crew again this year.
Or not.
"Whatever we feel like is best," says Melvin. "You can say you want six but you also have to have quality. You don't want to cover four innings (with the bullpen) several times through the rotation. So, if we have the guys to do it then we'll do it. If not we can go back to five."
Assuming there are no major injury issues we know Darvish, Musgrove, Blake Snell, and Nick Martinez are going to take up four starting spots. During Spring Training we'll find out if they believe they have the quality to add two more.
It won't be for lack of options. Adrian Morejon and Ryan Weathers are both in the mix. So is Jay Groome, the lefty they got back from Boston in the Eric Hosmer trade who has impressed in the minor leagues. Lugo is an interesting case because he signed with the Friars hoping to leave the relief role he had with the Mets and become a starter again but he's going to be throwing for Puerto Rico in the WBC so his progress will be tougher to track. Ditto Teheran, a non-roster invitee who's been to a pair of All-Star Games but only made one big league appearance since 2020.
If the Padres believe two of those guys, or perhaps another dark horse candidate, are worthy of being starters they'll go with six starters. If not, their bullpen is going to be even deeper than it already is and that group is going to be one of the best in baseball.
4) 25, 26, 27, 28
For the most part we know what this roster is going to look like. As previously stated it's loaded with star power. That means there are only a couple of bench and bullpen spots up for grabs with plenty of candidates to lock them down. With Tatis Jr. still out 20 games for his steroid suspension it's likely Adam Engel and Jose Azocar will both make the outfield cut but will they keep five outfielders after Fernando returns?
Matt Carpenter is on board as a utility guy but will they also keep La Jolla native Brandon Dixon, who joined the club late in the 2022 season in that role? Will Brent Honeywell and Rule 5 draftee Jose Lopez pitch their way into an already crowded bullpen?
As we've seen year after year, at some point in the season every single player on the roster will have a chance to help the Padres win (or lose) a game. Decisions on those last few spots will not be made lightly.
5) The Next Contract Extension Goes To …
Before the ink was dry on the 6-year, $108 million Yu Darvish contract extension we all started asking, "Who gets the next deal and why is his name Manny Machado?" True, Manny is almost certain to opt out of his contract after 2023 and he and the Padres have both indicated they're interested in new deal.
But the MVP candidate is not the only one.
Snell is going to be a free agent after after 2023. So is closer Josh Hader. Soto is scheduled to hit the open market after 2024. According to Preller, any ... all ... or none of them could be Padres a lot longer than that.
"We have some decisions to make. I think players that want to be here, want to be part of some really good teams with really special players, in an organization where Peter Seidler is looking to win, we'll have separate conversations going forward with each of the different guys. The players that indicate they want to be here and want to partner with our group, we'll look to line up if we can here over the next couple of weeks."
It's possible a new deal for Machado is worked out before Opening Day. It's also possible that nothing happens until December or any time in between. Ditto any of their other pending free agents. Keeping one eye on this year with another eye on the future is yet another intriguing aspect of Padres Spring Training 2023.
This is gonna be one heck of a fun ride.
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