Outcome of San Diego Congressional District 49 election could indicate long-standing SoCal blue wave

For the March primary election, California's 49th Congressional district is split by not only party lines, but also San Diego and Orange County lines.

While Democrats tend to dominate coastal districts up and down California, the 49th Congressional district is deeply purple.

For 16 years, Republican Darrell Issa represented the district. He now represents the neighboring 48th. He was proceeded by Democrat Mike Levin, who has held onto the seat for six years, and seeks re-election in 2024. Political scientist Thad Kousser, a professor and co-director of the Yankelovich Center for Social Science Research at UCSD, said another term could solidify the 49th District as a Democratic stronghold.

"This district, because it's been this swing district in San Diego, can tell us whether San Diego is moving fully into the blue territory," said Kousser. "If Mike Levin wins a convincing victory here and San Diego's congressional delegation remains almost entirely Democratic, that will really signal where the region is going."

The purple district, Kousser said, remains on the national radar, especially as Democrats seek to win back the House of Representatives in 2024.

"It's been the battleground district, the battleground for San Diego, for California, and really one of the top battlegrounds in the nation," said Kousser.

1 Democrat vs. 4 Republicans

Mike Levin is the sole Democrat in the primary. He faces four Republican challengers: Sheryl Adams, Matt Gunderson, Kate Monroe and Margarita Wilkinson. Kousser said Gunderson and Wilkinson have gained traction thus far.

The March 5 primary is nonpartisan, and the top two vote-getters will face off in the November general election.

Looking forward to November, Kousser anticipates Levin will have the upper hand.

"We see as incumbents, once they win and defend themselves one or two races, they usually become more secure in a district," said Kousser, adding that the presidential election may also help. "Those usually bring big coattails, a larger electorate, and bring in more of those younger voters who tend to lean Democratic."

Ultimately, even for a seat in D.C., Kousser said all politics are local. The coastal district has a large veteran presence, and voters told NBC 7 the economy remains top-of-mind. Kousser added immigration and abortion rights as issues likely to drive voters to the polls this year.

"Even though we've seen more of a trend towards congressional and Senate races being dictated by national trends, any incumbent who can still show that they're responding to local needs, that they fit with the voters in their area, that they're bringing home federal funding. And that's the sort of message that Mike Levin has been pushing in recent elections," said Kousser.

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