UC San Diego is set to face off against the University of Michigan. It will mark the Triton’s first March Madness appearance, and San Diegans are excited. Some fans are gathering to watch all of the action at Dirty Birds near the UCSD campus.
A lot of things are working against UC San Diego in the NCAA Tournament.
This is the program's first appearance in March Madness, which remarkably comes in its first year of postseason eligibility after transitioning from Division 2 to the D1 ranks. They're a 12-seed against the Big 10 Tournament champion Michigan Wolverines, a blue blood program with loads of big game experience. They're playing at Ball Arena in Denver, which seats more than 19,000, making it by far the largest arena the Tritons program has ever played in.
HOWEVER ...
March has long been the playground for Madness, and the Tritons have become a popular pick to pull off an early-tournament upset.
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Consider this: Vegas sportsbooks posted the Wolverines as 3.5-point favorites. That was very quickly bet down to a 2.0-point spread as bracket experts immediately honed in on the details of a matchup that's a lot more favorable to the underdog than most people realized. Let's break it down and see how UCSD can extend their tourney stay.
FORWARDS/CENTERS
The Tritons best player is senior forward Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones, who also might be the toughest guy in college basketball. The Big West Player of the Year is just 6'6" but he led the nation in free throw attempts because the man relentlessly attacks the basket. He might have trouble doing that against Michigan because the Wolverines literally have a huge advantage down low.
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They have a pair of trees in the middle in 7'1" Vladislav Goldin and 7'0" Danny Wolf, who combine to average nearly 30 points a game. The biggest player in the Tritons rotation is 6'8" Nordin Kapic so if the game is dragged into a slowdown, low post affair it'll be a long night for UCSD.
GUARDS
But, if the tempo stays up then the Tritons could run the big guys out of the building. UC San Diego's strength is its backcourt. Senior guard Hayden Gray is one of 10 finalists for college basketball's defensive player of the year award and only three players in the nation made more 3-point shots than sharpshooting senior Tyler McGhie.
Michigan's best backcourt option is junior Tre Donaldson, an athletic and explosive playmaker with the ability to knock down the occasional 3-pointer.
X-FACTOR
The thing that really sticks out here, and the reason the Tritons have become such a popular bracket pick, is this:
Ball security.
Not just defense. I'm talking about the ability to hang onto the ball when you have it and take it away from the other team when they have it, and the numbers here are stark.
The Tritons force 16 turnovers a game, 8th in the nation, while committing the fewest turnovers of any D-1 program. Michigan gives it away a whopping 14 times a game. Only 21 of the country's 355 teams are more careless with the basketball, and that is very likely going to be the difference in the game.
PREDICTION
The Tritons are 30-4 and on a 15-game winning streak. They know exactly who they are as a team, and there's one other interesting thing to consider here.
Playing at altitude is not an easy thing to do. Michigan hasn't had to play in the mountains all season. Back in December UCSD went to Utah State, 5,000 feet above sea level, and handed the Aggies their 4th home loss over the last three SEASONS. Having been through that coupled with their ability to force turnovers will spark another Cinderella story.
UC San Diego 78, Michigan 73
You can see how it turns out on Thursday night with a 7:00 p.m. tipoff on TBS.
