Democratic Rep. Mike Levin will win reelection, defeating Republican challenger Matt Gunderson in a close contest for California's 49th Congressional District in San Diego and Orange counties, NBC News projected Tuesday.
As of Tuesday night — with more than 349,000 votes counted — Levin had 52% of the vote, compared to Gunderson's 48%.
“This was a hard fought, competitive race and I am proud of the incredible work we put in as a team with hundreds of volunteers to get this over the finish line," Levin wrote in part of a statement released Tuesday night. "We knocked on thousands of doors, called thousands of voters, and held town halls all throughout the district to share our message of successfully delivering bipartisan results for our residents."
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Levin first flipped the seat from longtime Republican control in 2018, amid a suburban blue wave across the U.S. The district has been a GOP target since, with the National Republican Congressional Committee in 2023 naming it as one of just a few dozen nationwide they were focused on as a potential pick-up opportunity.
About two-thirds of the district is in northern San Diego County, including the communities of Oceanside and Vista, among others, with the remaining third in Orange County. The district is nearly evenly split into thirds when it comes to registration, with a slight Democratic advantage.
The incumbent declared victory on election night, confident the race would tighten as the Election Day vote broke for Gunderson, then predicting his lead would grow with later-arriving ballots.
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Gunderson’s campaign on Monday noted there were “many ballots still to be counted” and said they’re still waiting to see how those break, adding, “this race could still go in any direction.”
The race served as a sort of bellwether for the national political conversation. Key to Levin’s message was abortion rights as both candidates looked to appeal to suburban women.
“Pro-choice means that you want a woman to choose when it comes to her own reproductive rights. Not that you want states to choose,” Levin said on election night. “It's very, very sad to see where almost half the states in this country now have some form of a ban on reproductive freedom.”
Gunderson said he too was pro-choice, hoping to put that aside to focus on other issues like the economy and immigration.
“They attempted to shift the focus away from the economy. But, you know, people out here are suffering,” said Gunderson volunteer Loren Lasche. “At the end of the day, what do we care about? For the most part, it's our living and how do we take care of our families?”
Both sides agreed the 49th District will remain competitive for cycles to come.
“So long as this is such a close registration where Democrats only have a couple points registration advantage, I do expect us to be on the national radar,” Levin said just hours before polls closed on Election Day.
“This district is, you know, it's not really solid red. It's not really solid blue,” Lasche said. “It's described as purple. And that's because there's a lot of conservatives, a lot of independents and a lot of Democrats.”
NBC 7 reached out to Gunderson on Tuesday but has not heard back.
Levin's fourth term will start in January.
