Mike Madrid has studied the decade-long re-alignment of Latino voters, towards the Republican party, which he emphasizes is not a phenomenon unique to 2024. In San Diego, Latino voters moved to the right by significant margins in areas like Chula Vista and National City.
“It correlates really with this transition from Latino as being primarily an ethnic and racially motivated voting group to an economic pocketbook voting group,” said Madrid.
Immigration, Madrid said, is taking a backseat to issues like housing affordability, especially as second, third and fourth-generation Latinos strengthen their foothold within the electorate.
“I think people are more obviously willing to vote across party lines and if they haven't changed their voter registration are certainly voting in a different party," said Madrid. "We're experiencing something very unique in American politics where there’s a voting group, the fastest growing segment of the electorate that is primarily motivated by economic and pocketbook issues, but as a strong cultural and ethnic sensitivity, too.”
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That does not mean immigration rhetoric is moot. Actions on that front, Madrid speculates, could determine whether the rightward shift persists in future elections. During the 2018 midterms, for example, Latinos rejected Republicans overwhelmingly, following workplace raids, resulting in deportations, Madrid said.
“Do Latinos follow this 2018 model if Donald Trump goes forward with these mass deportations, or where they continue on this upward trajectory that Republicans have been experiencing?” said Madrid.
It is too soon to say, but not too soon for the parties to buckle down on their efforts to court Latino voters.
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“There will be a heated discussion within the community, perhaps broken down generationally with a lot of later generation Latinos saying no we're supportive of what Donald Trump is doing a lot of those more recently migrated saying this is not the way to treat a community,” said Madrid.
