Commentary: It's time for the Padres to part ways with AJ Preller

NBC 7's Derek Togerson makes a tough decision about how to fix the Padres in this commentary

The season is over, and the Padres have cemented their status as one of the biggest disappointments in Major League Baseball history, which is impressive when you consider MLB was born in 1903.

How does a team that has a payroll flirting with $300 million, a team that for a substantial stretch of the season had 11 All-Stars on its roster, miss the playoffs? Everyone around baseball was CONVINCED this team would be playing plenty of postseason games again.

What makes this season even more bizarre is the Padres got better when it looked like it should have gotten worse. In September they’ve been arguably the best team in the game, going 20-7 despite Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, Jake Cronenworth, and Gary Sanchez being out with injuries and Manny Machado limited to DH duties with an elbow ailment that’s going to need off-season surgery.

They somehow found a way to win more (a lot more) when they had less talent available, which seems counter-intuitive. But, there are fundamental flaws with this organization, the kinds of things that little tweaks are simply not going to fix. To make sure we’re not in this position again something major needs to happen.

That something is saying good-bye to AJ Preller.

It’s not personal. Shoot, I like AJ. I’ve defended him over the years and used the #InPrellerWeTrust hashtag plenty. But, as years go on we have to assess what’s happening and sometimes that means accepting we were wrong.

I was wrong.

And honestly, it’s really not even about results. Sure, the Padres have had only two winning seasons since he took over in late 2014 but we can throw half of those out because the franchise was in a prolonged rebuild. From 2019-on he’s overseen a pair of playoff appearances and two abysmal collapses (maybe two and a half if you count being 45-45 at the All-Star Break in 2019 and ending the season firing manager Andy Green).

I can honestly say AJ is one of the most astute evaluators of baseball talent in the game today. As it turns out, in some bit of twisted irony, that’s apparently part of the problem.

AJ can assemble talent like nobody’s business. He just doesn’t seem to know how to build a team.

Clubhouse chemistry, obviously, is severely lacking on the 2023 Padres. Everyone in the room, from the GM to the manager to the players, shares part of the blame for that. The bottom line, though, is Preller put the roster together. Teams need more than talent to be successful. Personalities need to complement one another.

Look at the Braves. In 2021 they lost Ronald Acuna Jr., made a bunch of trades for guys who aren’t the biggest names but fit the clubhouse dynamic perfectly, and won a World Series. Then they let Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson, both All-Stars in their prime, walk in free agency. They responded by winning 100-plus games in back-to-back seasons.

Atlanta GM Alex Anthopoulos put those rosters together. He let the superstars leave and somehow got better. Anthopoulos gave an interview to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution explaining why his emphasis is more on how the players fit together than how talented they are. In it he shared this interesting philosophy:

“We walked away from a lot of really talented players just because they didn’t fit, where in the past, I would’ve just taken the talent and figured, OK, let’s just collect the talent, it should work,” Anthopoulos said. “It was more of a conscious: I’m not going to fall into the temptation. I’m going to try to stay disciplined and really be selective about who we bring in, even though we have to walk away from talent at times.”

Collecting talent and thinking it should work sounds a lot like what’s happening at Petco Park, doesn’t it?

When Anthopoulos took the Braves job that franchise had suffered four straight losing seasons. Under his guidance they’ve won six consecutive NL East titles. Their 2023 payroll is sitting right about $200 million, the exact spot the Padres would like to be when next Opening Day rolls around.

Remember a little bit ago I pointed out the Padres found a way to get better when they had less talent on the field? As wild as it sounds, maybe the likes of Matt Batten and Jurickson Profar are better for the Friars than high-priced superstars. Don’t believe me?

San Diego is 31-22 with Batten on the roster and have gone 12-5 since bringing Profar back. Now, I’m not saying Batten and Profar are the keys to a World Series title. But I’m definitely saying guys like Profar and Batten are what this club has been missing. The Friars have more than enough talent. They need the guys who fill in the gaps.

Think of it like cooking. Sushi, Massaman curry, California burritos, and donuts are all delectable. If you try to throw them all into one meal you’d better have some Alka-Seltzer standing by because it’s not going to go very well. A chef needs to understand complementary flavors to make a meal really sing.

So does a general manager.

The Padres need one who recognizes that and assembles the roster accordingly, especially if Bob Melvin stays on as manager (which I wholeheartedly believe he should).

In Oakland, Melvin had nowhere near the level of talent he has now, yet he won consistently. BoMel’s GM with the A’s, Billy Beane, knew the importance having players that make each other better. This year Melvin hasn’t suddenly forgotten how to pinch-hitters or drastically changed bullpen management style. It’s no coincidence that since getting some more “glue guys” in the dugout his moves are working more often than not.

Now, which players need to stay and which ones need to go? That’s something we’ll look at in the coming months.

In the interim, AJ Preller needs to be commended and thanked for making the Padres extremely talented and relevant. Now he needs to step aside so they can be champions.

LISTEN: With NBC 7 San Diego's Darnay Tripp and Derek Togerson behind the mic, On Friar will cover all things San Diego Padres. Interviews, analysis, behind-the-scenes...the ups, downs, and everything in between. Tap here to find On Friar wherever you listen to podcasts.