With baseball playoffs around the corner, what are the keys for a San Diego Padres victory over the New York Mets? NBC 7’s Derek Togerson shares his take.
Here we go. The 2022 Major League Baseball playoffs are here and San Diego has a seat at the table.
The Padres postseason run starts with a 3-game Wild Card series against the New York Mets. Thanks to MLB's expanded playoff brackets and revamped seeding structure, all three games will be played at Citi Field in Queens, New York.
The Mets finished their season with a 101-61 record, but the Padres, who won 89 games (their best mark since they won 90 in 2010), came on top 4 out of the 6 times the two teams met and outscored the Mets 36-23.
Sports anchor Derek Togerson says the Friars — the team Las Vegas has tabbed as the biggest underdog of all the Wild Card teams — need to do these things if they're going to advance past the Mets and go toe-to-toe with the Dodgers.
Get top local stories in San Diego delivered to you every morning. >Sign up for NBC San Diego's News Headlines newsletter.
Padres to the Postseason
1. Take Advantage of Mistakes
With a pitching staff led by Max Scherzer and Jacob DeGrom, owners of three and two Cy Young Awards, respectively, you'd expect mistakes to be few and far between. The good news is that Scherzer and DeGrom haven't been themselves down the stretch, possibly just good instead of great.
DeGrom finished the year with an ERA above 3 for the first time since 2017 and gave up nine home runs in 11 starts. And in Scherzer's last start, his fastball was barely touching the mid-90s.
If the Padres can capitalize on mistakes over the middle of the plate, they just might have a chance.
2. Good Starting Pitching
The Padres staff has to be sharp, just like it was, for the most part, throughout the 2022 season.
Yu Darvish, the reigning National League Pitcher of the Week, is scheduled to start Game 1. He's been great down the stretch for the Padres, and they're going to need him to be the same guy in the playoffs.
Game 2 could feature Blake Snell or Joe Musgrove starting, and both are good options. Snell may have the edge if you're looking at recent performances. He also has postseason experience Musgrove can't match. He's held a sub-3 ERA over 35 career postseason innings and averages just over 11 strikeouts per nine innings in October.
On the other hand, Musgrove is the only Padres starter who has a World Series game win under his belt.
3. Gotta Get Something on Offense
Even if the starting pitching is excellent, the Padres offense is going to have to produce at least a little bit. Fans have to expect big performances from big-time players, like rising star Juan Soto and team MVP Manny Machado, but postseason series tend to feature lesser-known names who catch fire and play like stars. Who's that going to be for San Diego?
Togerson thinks it's Ha-Seong Kim and Wil Myers.
"[Ha-Seeong] has been so good since he realized he was going to be the everyday starting shortstop," Togerson said, adding this about Myers: "The outfielder who got the first big contract in Padres history. He's been here for eight years. Odds are, and he's even admitted this, this is probably his last go-around with this team ... How awesome would it be for Padres fans if old Wil Myers was able to take one more nice run, catch fire in the postseason, hit 3, 4, .500 in a series and everybody else can ride his coat tails. That would be a wonderful full-circle moment for a guy who's been a fan favorite for a really long time.
Now ... Prediction Time!
How Togerson wants it to go and how he thinks it will go are slightly different.
It'd be super if Bob Melvin and the boys could take the first two of the best-of-three series and have Joe Musgrove and a well-rested Yu Darvish to kick off a big series with the Dodgers.
A series win will come down to two more keys, according to Togerson: early offense and scoring runs against the Mets bullpen.
If the Padres can put up some crooked numbers early, they might be able to expose the Mets weak link, which is their middle-relief bullpen arms. Then comes a chance to extend their lead and avoid a high-pressure 9th inning trying to score late runs against Edwin Diaz, the best closer in the game this year.
"If you hear "Timmy Trumpets" by Narcos (Diaz's entrance music), the game is over," Togerson said.
Final prediction: Padres in three.
LISTEN: With NBC 7 San Diego's Darnay Tripp and Derek Togerson behind the mic, On Friar will cover all things San Diego Padres. Interviews, analysis, behind-the-scenes...the ups, downs, and everything in between. Tap here to find On Friar wherever you listen to podcasts.
