Stocks rise a fourth day on soft inflation data, S&P 500 and Nasdaq close at highest levels in 2023: Live updates

Stocks rose Thursday after another key inflation reading came in lighter than expected. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at their highest levels in over a year.

The S&P 500 climbed 0.85% to reach 4,510.04, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 47.71 points, or 0.14%, to close at 34,395.14. The Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.58% to end at 14,138.57. It was the fourth consecutive day of gains for the major averages.

Cybersecurity stock Palo Alto Networks jumped 2.7%. Meanwhile, shares of MGM Resorts and Alphabet rose 4.1% and 4.7%, respectively.

June's producer price index report rose less than anticipated, building upon optimism from Wednesday's consumer price index data. The PPI, which measures what wholesalers pay for goods, rose 0.1% in June. Economists polled by Dow Jones had expected an increase of 0.2%. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, climbed 0.1% — also lower than expectations.

"The PPI confirmed the cooling inflation shown in yesterday's CPI, but the lower-than-expected weekly jobless claims number was a reminder of continued labor market tightness," said Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley Global Investment Office.

"For now, the stage appears to be set: The Fed is still on track to raise interest rates in a couple of weeks, and investors will shift their focus to corporate balance sheets as earnings season kicks into gear," Loewengart continued.

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Stocks close higher Thursday

U.S. stocks notched gains on Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 47.71 points, or 0.14%.

The S&P 500 ticked up 0.85%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.58%.

— Hakyung Kim

Thursday's U.S. stock market rally is broad and deep

Almost 2.4 stocks are rising Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange for every 1 decline, and advancing volume approaches 71% versus less than 29% declining volume, according to FactSet data. New NYSE highs total 167 versus only 11 new lows.

Over on the Nasdaq Stock Market, almost 2 stocks are rising for every 1 that's falling, and up volume is a shade less than 73%, far outstripping down volume that's equal to less than 27%. Nasdaq new highs amount to 256 against just 52 new lows.

— Scott Schnipper

Stocks reporting next week with earnings momentum

Analysts are getting more bullish on a slew of companies set to report earnings season next week. CNBC Pro subscribers can read about which names made our screen here.

— Samantha Subin

JPMorgan ups Netflix price target, cites paid sharing initiative

JPMorgan is getting more bullish on Netflix heading into its second-quarter earnings print next week.

Analyst Doug Anmuth lifted his price target on shares to $495 from $470, saying the the roll out of paid sharing should lead to incremental revenue growth, subscriptions and profits. Shares have rallied 52% this year, with the price target hike implying about 10% upside from Wednesday's close.

Given this setup, and data indicating an acceleration in daily active user trends, the Wall Street firm lifted also lifted net addition expectations for the second quarter to 2.5 million from 1 million.

"Paid sharing also drives NFLX's ad tier, & at some point during '24 we'd expect more of a hand-off from paid sharing to advertising as the primary incremental growth driver," Anmuth said. "Indeed, advertising should ultimately be a larger and more durable source of revenue for NFLX."

— Samantha Subin

'Higher inflation not the end of the 60/40 portfolio,' says Vanguard

Vanguard said despite the current higher-inflation environment, the traditional 60% stock, 40% bond portolio is still viable.

According to researchers at the firm, investors would need to make four assumptions to conclude that the 60/40 portfolio is no longer viable:

• A decade or more of rising inflation is ahead.
• Policymakers are unable to bring about price stability.
• The only diversification benefit comes from low return correlations.
• More complex investments will benefit from rising inflation and provide high enough returns to exceed their typically higher expenses.

"Barring that scenario, the 60/40 is still that reliable family minivan that will help get you to your destination," Kevin DiCiurcio, head of Vanguard Capital Markets Model development, said. "It's not time to trade it in yet."

DiCiurcio added that he does not think permanently elevated inflation is likely.

"Our recent experience is more of an aberration than a new reality. But our research indicates that even if inflation stays elevated, the portfolio outcomes for long-term investors won't be drastically different," DiCiurcio added.

— Hakyung Kim

Crypto equities rally following Ripple's win in SEC lawsuit

Shares of crypto related equities surged on Thursday with cryptocurrencies after a judge in the Southern District of New York ruled that it's "not necessarily a security on its face."

Coinbase shares were last up 11% after the ruling. Bitcoin proxy Microstrategy gained 6%. Miners surged double digit percentages: Marathon and Canaan was up 11% and Riot Platforms up 12%. Hut 8 and Stronghold Digital rose 13%.

The news marks the end of a three-year battle between Ripple and the Securities and Exchange Commission, which initiated a lawsuit against the company in 2020 for breaching U.S. securities laws by selling XRP without first registering it with the agency.

The decision was widely seen as a key hurdle to clear in the second half of 2023 as crypto assets are still still contending with a challenging macro environment and have spent the past several weeks under immense pressure from U.S. regulators. That scrutiny includes lawsuits brought by the SEC against Binance and Coinbase in June.

— Tanaya Macheel

St. Louis Fed's Bullard steps down

The St. Louis Federal Reserve announced Thursday that Jim Bullard will step down from his post as president, effective Aug. 14.

The bank said he's leaving to take the position of dean at Purdue University's Mitchell E. Daniels, Jr. School of Business, effective Aug. 15. It also added that Bullard has "recused himself from his monetary policy role on the Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee and other related duties and has ceased all public speaking."

"It has been both a privilege and an honor to be part of the St. Louis Fed for the last 33 years, including serving as its president for the last 15 years," Bullard said in a statement. "I am also grateful to have worked alongside such dedicated and inspiring colleagues across the Federal Reserve System."

Bullard is not a voting member on the policymaking committee this year.

— Fred Imbert

This environment is “as good as it gets for yield chasers,” says eToro’s Callie Cox

Bond yields could be reaching their peak, and that means it will soon be time to think about locking in your income, according to Callie Cox, investment analyst at eToro.

"If you have enjoyed robust yields on cash and your bonds, I would think about trying to lock that yield in," she said, noting that inflation has been coming down and that interest rates may not have much higher to go from here.

Investors with a long-term perspective would do well to start adding Treasurys to their portfolios, Cox added. Indeed, when investors flock to safety in Treasurys, the prices of the bonds rise – which can help offset declines in equities within a portfolio. Bond prices and yields move inversely to one another.

"We are switching from this high yield, high inflation environment to one of tempered yields and slower growth," she said.

-Darla Mercado

Texas-focused ETF begins trading

A new ETF issuer has debuted a way for investors to bet on the state of Texas through an index fund.

The Texas Capital Texas Equity Index ETF (TXS) began trading on Thursday, and it tracks a group of more than 200 companies who are headquartered in the state. Top holdings include Tesla, real estate company Crown Castle, McKesson Corp. and Schwab.

"We believe the state's pro-business environment creates persistent competitive advantages for companies based in Texas relative to companies headquartered elsewhere," Edward Rosenberg, head of ETF & funds management for Texas Capital and president of the Texas Capital Funds Trust, said in a press release.

The fund has an expense ratio of 0.49%, which is higher than many other passive ETFs on the market.

— Jesse Pound

S&P 500 up more than 3% since rate hikes started

In another bullish sign for the market, the S&P 500 is now up 3.3% since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022. The move comes as traders cheer the prospects of the central bank taming inflation without tipping the economy into a recession.

"For first time in 2023 we are currently being asked by multiple clients if we think the S&P 500 is now on track to clock an ATH before year end. I am going with a yes on this," Goldman Sachs' John Flood wrote in a note Wednesday.

— Fred Imbert

S&P 500 can ‘easily’ top 5,000 by the end of 2023, says Commonwealth Financial Network

Recent inflation data points to a strong economy that could propel the S&P 500 to break the 5,000-point threshold by the end of 2023, according to Peter Essele, head of portfolio management for Commonwealth Financial Network.

June data for two closely watched inflation gauges released this week, the consumer price index and producer price index, showed costs easing across the board. That signals to Essele that the S&P 500 can keep charging upward, with his prediction of the 5,000 level being reached implying the S&P 500 will gain another 11.8% from Wednesday's close.

The S&P 500 has already had a stellar year, rising 17%.

To read more about his outlook, click here.

— Hakyung Kim

'Barbie' boost to Mattel shares draws similarities to 'Hunger Games' release for Lions Gate, Gordon Haskett says

The excitement around "Barbie" in the runup to its release next week is having a similar impact to Mattel stock as the first release of the "Hunger Games" movie franchise had for Lions Gate, according to research firm Gordon Haskett.

Analyst Don Bilson said the movie is not an ordinary release for Mattel, as the toymaker is hoping to prove a Disney-like ability to turn intellectual property into successful movies that can, in turn, boost merchandise sales. (Sony and Universal Pictures, which is part of Comcast's NBCUniversal, both previously held rights before Warner Bros. Discovery.)

"Beyond Barbie, it has thirteen other film projects in various stages of development, and it figures that Barbie's success, or lack thereof, will play an important role in how Wall Street appraises that opportunity," Bilson said of Mattel in a note to clients earlier this week.

This potential turning point is reminiscent of Lions Gate in March 2012 in the days leading up to the first "Hunger Games" movie release, Bilson said. In the three weeks preceding the release, the stock jumped from around $13 to as much as $16 — a more than 20% jump.

Mattel shares moved from $18.28 on June 9 to breaking into the $20 range for the first time since February, closing last week at $20.48. That amounts to a 12% increase between June 9 and last Friday.

While Mattel has outperformed competitor Hasbro over the past month, Bilson cautioned Mattel has further to go to overtake its rival in market value, which has not happened since 2016.

Disclosure: NBCUniversal is the parent company of Universal Pictures and CNBC.

— Alex Harring

Tom Lee reveals what the market needs to hit all-time highs

Tom Lee, who correctly called the stock market rally after June's softer-than-forecast inflation report, said the S&P 500 could hit new a record high soon — on one condition.

"Many believe a recession is imminent, and I think earnings season will really give us an idea and we'll know that in the next couple of weeks," Lee, founder and head of research at Fundstrat Global Advisors, said on CNBC's "Closing Bell Overtime." "If a recession is not imminent, then I think a lot of folks are offsides and that's what propels markets to all time highs."

— Yun Li

Stocks making the biggest moves midday

Check out some of the companies making headlines in midday trading.

Cirrus Logic — The chipmaker fell more than 3% in midday trading after Cirrus announced in an 8K filing plans to slash 5% of its workforce.

Nvidia -- Stock in the semiconductor and artificial intelligence powerhouse added 2.2%. Nvidia invested $50 million into Recursion to help drive AI-based drug discovery, the company said Wednesday.

Disney — Shares of the media giant rose less than 1% after the company said it will extend CEO Bob Iger's deal by two years, extending his tenure through 2026. Bank of America reiterated its buy rating on Disney following the news.

Read the full list here.

— Brian Evans

TD Cowen says Meta could have upside ahead

TD Cowen joined the bullish majority on Wall Street with an upgrade for Meta on Thursday.

Analyst John Blackledge upgraded the Facebook parent's stock to outperform from market perform and raised his price target to $345 from $220. Blackledge's price target implies upside potential of 11.5% from Wednesday's close. More than four out of every five analysts have buy ratings on the stock, according to Refinitiv.

"In retrospect, we underestimated Meta's willingness to significantly cut costs after providing initial '23 opex and capex guide at 3Q22 earnings that was well above street expectations," he said in a note to clients Thursday. "Shortly after setting guide, Meta mgmt. did a complete 180 by instituting headcount cuts and other cost initiatives as part of what they deemed the year of efficiency."

Shares rose more than 1% Thursday.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Alex Harring

Carvana falls more than 9% as JPMorgan warns of potential pullback

Carvana shares tumbled 9.6% Thursday after JPMorgan cautioned that the stock will need to come back to Earth after its recent rally.

Analyst Rajat Gupta downgraded the used car e-commerce platform to underweight from neutral. Gupta's $10 price target means he thinks the stock could fall 74.3%. That would mark a turn after surging more than 700% since the start of 2023.

"We believe valuation has once again disconnected materially from fundamentals," he said in a note to clients Thursday.

CNBC Pro subscribers can click here to read more.

— Alex Harring

All S&P 500 sectors are on pace for winning week

All 12 sectors in the S&P 500 are on pace to end the week higher in a broad advance that's helped drive the broad index up.

Communication services stocks have led the ascent with a 3.8% week-to-date gain. Match Group led the sector with a nearly 13% jump on the week.

Energy was the next best-performing sector with a 3.4% advance. Halliburton was the best performing stock in the sector, up nearly 7%.

Health care and consumer staples had the most restricted gains of the sector, with both up less than 1%. By comparison, the broad index is up more than 2% on the week.

— Alex Harring

Bank of America sees a drop of more than 40% for Coinbase

The downgrade from Barclays was not the only negative analyst note weighing on Coinbase during Thursday's trading session.

Bank of America analyst Jason Kupferberg reiterated his underperform rating on the stock, and still sees a downside of more than 40% for the stock despite revising his price target marginally higher.

Shares of Coinbase were down about 2% in midday trading. Read more about the call on CNBC Pro.

— Jesse Pound

What Threads means for Twitter, social media and Meta's future

Meta's Threads platform may only be in its early innings, but Wall Street's already begun quantifying what its growth could mean for Twitter and the future of the social media industry.

The text-based social media app, allowing users to share updates to a feed structure similar to Twitter, is already making waves, garnering more than 100 million users within its first five days on the market. Some data already suggests Twitter's lost some traffic in that time frame.

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more on what analysts and big investors are saying about the launch of Threads and what it could mean for Meta's profits over the long run.

— Samantha Subin

Perrigo shares rise on FDA approval of over-the-counter birth control pill

Shares of Perrigo rose 2% Thursday after the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approved the first over-the-counter birth control pill.

HRA Pharma, a Paris-based manufacturer of the pill and a unit of Perrigo, said the contraceptive would most likely be available in-store and at online retailers in the U.S. in early 2024.

To read more about the decision, click here.

— Hakyung Kim

Coinbase slides Thursday after Barclays recommends selling shares before earnings report

Coinbase lost more 0.8% Thursday after Barclays said investors should sell the stock ahead of its earnings report slated for next month.

Analyst Benjamin Budish downgraded the crypto platform to underweight from equal weight while raising his price target by $9 to $70. Even with the upped target, he still thinks the stock could drop 18.6% in the next year from Wednesday's close.

There's "some rays of sunshine, but we're still in winter," he said in a note to clients Thursday. 

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more about the downgrade here.

— Alex Harring

Online retail ETF on pace for best week since January

The Amplify Online Retail ETF is up more than 9% this week, and headed for its best weekly performance since the week ended Jan. 13, when it gained 9.41%.

Some of the fund's biggest week-to-date winners include Carvana, Affirm, Etsy, Shopify, Shutterstock, JD.com and Wayfair, up 10% or more.

Carvana's seen the largest percent change in shares this week, up more than 24%.

— Gina Francolla, Samantha Subin

Dollar index hits lowest level since April 2022

The dollar index fell to 100.00 Thursday morning, marking its lowest level since April 21, 2022 when it hit a low of 99.818. It's now down more than 2% for the week and on pace for its worst week since November.

Meanwhile, the euro traded at 1.1193, up 0.5%.

The pound gained 0.9% against the dollar to trade at 1.3103.

— Tanaya Macheel, Gina Francolla

Disney CEO Bob Iger opens door to selling TV assets

Disney CEO Bob Iger told CNBC Thursday one of his top priorities is assessing the media giant's traditional TV business, opening the door to possibly selling the networks.

"They may not be core to Disney," Iger said.

Iger appeared on CNBC after Disney announced it would extend his contract through 2026. Disney shares posted gains during premarket trading before drawing back almost 1% after the open.

— Michelle Fox

Stocks open higher Thursday

U.S. stocks opened in the green on Thursday.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 87 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 gained 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.9%.

— Hakyung Kim

Stocks making the biggest moves Thursday before the bell

Check out the companies making headlines before the bell:

Delta Air Lines — Delta Air Lines jumped 4% after the airline operator reported its highest-ever quarterly earnings and revenue, and raised its 2023 earnings forecast. Delta posted adjusted earnings per share of $2.68 cents, more than the $2.40 expected by analysts polled by Refinitiv. It gained adjusted revenue of $14.61 billion, greater than the $14.49 billion consensus estimate.

MillerKnoll — MillerKnoll shares fell more than 5% in the premarket. The furniture company behind the Noguchi table and Eames office chairs beat fiscal fourth-quarter earnings expectations. MillerKnoll posted adjusted earnings of 41 cents per share on revenues of $957 million. Analysts polled by Refinitiv had expected per-share earnings of of 39 cents on revenues of $946 million.

PepsiCo — The beverage stock rose 2% after PepsiCo on Thursday beat earnings and revenue expectation in its recent results, and raised its full-year outlook. The firm reported adjusted earnings of $2.09 per share, more than the $1.96 per share consensus estimate from Refinitiv. It reported revenue of $22.32 billion, greater than the forecasted $21.73 billion.

Check out the full list here.

— Sarah Min

Producer price index rises less than expected

The producer price index, a measure of what wholesalers pay for goods, rose 0.1% in June. Economists polled by Dow Jones expected an increase of 0.2%. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, climbed 0.1% — also less than expected.

— Fred Imbert

Denbury shares rise on news of Exxon deal

Exxon Mobil announced Thursday morning it would acquire Denbury, which focuses on carbon dioxide-enhanced oil recovery operations. The deal is an all-stock transaction valued at $4.9 billion, or $89.45 per share based on Wednesday's close price for Exxon shares.

Exxon Mobil CEO Darren Woods said the acquisition reflects the oil giant's "determination" to profitably grow its Low Carbon Solutions business.

"The breadth of Denbury's network, when added to ExxonMobil's decades of experience and capabilities in CCS, gives us the opportunity to play an even greater role in a thoughtful energy transition, as we continue to deliver on our commitment to provide the world with the vital energy and products it needs," said Woods.

Exxon shares rose 0.5% Wednesday premarket following the announcement. Shares of Danbury gained 0.8%.

— Hakyung Kim

SoFi sheds 3% after Morgan Stanley says stock deserves bank treatment

SoFi tumbled more than 3% in Thursday's premarket after Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock, saying it needed to be treated more like a bank.

Analyst Jeffrey Adelson downgraded the stock, which is known for refinancing higher-rate graduate school loans, to underweight but raised his price target by 50 cents to $7. Despite the increase, Adelson's raised price target implies shares could tumble 23.9% in the next year from where they finished Wednesday.

"We previously valued SOFI on a growth-adj. basis, given strong growth well above most banks/consumer lenders," he said in a note to clients Thursday. "But as SOFI looks increasingly like a bank, we believe it needs to be valued more like a bank."

CNBC Pro subscribers can read more here.

— Alex Harring

Delta reports record quarterly earnings

Delta Air Lines reported record earnings and revenue for the second quarter, fueled by strong international travel demand and cheaper fuel. The stock popped on the news.

"I think the trends that we've seen this year are going to continue," CEO Ed Bastian said in an interview.

— Fred Imbert

PepsiCo rises on stronger-than-expected earnings

Shares of PepsiCo rose more than 2% after the beverage and snack giant reported earnings and revenue for the second quarter that beat analyst expectations. The company also hiked its full-year outlook.

— Fred Imbert

Europe stocks higher

European stocks were cautiously higher in early trade, with the benchmark Stoxx 600 index gaining 0.9%.

France's CAC 40 climbed 0.14%, though the U.K.'s FTSE 100 and Germany's DAX were lower by 0.07% and 0.04%, respectively.

— Jenni Reid

China trade surplus lower than expected in June, both imports and exports fall

China's trade surplus for June came in at $70.62 billion in June, higher than the $65.81 billion recorded in May, but lower than the $74.8 billion expected by economists polled by Reuters.

Exports and imports also fell more than expected, with exports dropping 12.4% from a year ago and imports 6.8% lower compared with the same period last year.

Lu Daliang, a spokesperson for China's customs bureau, said at a press conference Thursday that China's trade still faces rather great pressure in the second half of the year, partly due to high inflation in developed countries and geopolitics.

— Lim Hui Jie

Wuxi Biologics leads Hang Seng as Hong Kong stocks surge over 2%

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index was the best performing Asian benchmark index on Thursday, gaining about 2.5% and led by health-care and basic materials stocks.

R&D company Wuxi Biologics was the top gainer on the index, surging 8.67%, while other companies leading the index also include online healthcare platform JD Health and Alibaba Health Information Technology, a subsidiary of the larger Alibaba Group.

Both stocks gained 8.66% and 6.70% respectively on Thursday.

— Lim Hui Jie

South Korea holds rates at 3.5%, in line with expectations

South Korea's central bank held its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.5%, the fourth straight meeting the Bank of Korea has done so after last hiking rates in January.

The bank wrote that although the country's inflation rate continues to slow down, it is expected to rise above the BOK's target level of 2% "for a considerable period of time."

The BOK also forecasts that inflation will rise to around 3% after August, and added the need for an additional hike will be judged "while assessing the changes in domestic and external policy conditions."

South Korea's inflation rate came in at 2.7% for June, and is at its lowest level since September 2021.

— Lim Hui Jie

New Zealand factory sees steeper contraction in June

New Zealand's factory activity saw a steeper contraction in June, with the manufacturing purchasing managers index standing at 47.6, lower than the 48.9 recorded in May.

The reading means that New Zealand's manufacturing sector has stayed in contraction territory for the fourth straight month, and is at the lowest level of activity since November 2022.

A PMI reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.

— Lim Hui Jie

Federal Trade Commission will appeal to prevent Microsoft-Activision deal

The Federal Trade Commission filed to appeal against a federal judge's decision that would have helped pave the way for Microsoft to acquire Activision Blizzard.

The FTC's move follows a day after a federal judge in San Francisco denied the agency's motion for a preliminary injunction to block the $68.7 billion deal. The FTC deems the acquisition to be anticompetitive, arguing that Microsoft may make some of its games exclusive to its own consoles or diminish the experience of Activision games on other services.

The two companies are trying to close the transaction by July 18.

Read more about the FTC's appeal here.

Shares of Activision are down 0.5% in extended trading, while Microsoft shares are flat.

-Darla Mercado, Jordan Novet

Morgan Stanley’s Brian Weinstein anticipates falling growth in the second half. How to play it

Expect growth to slow and inflation stick around later in the year, according to Morgan Stanley Investment Management's Brian Weinstein.

"I think inflation – not in the next two or three months, but when we get toward the fourth quarter – will be sticky and I think growth will start to fall because the Fed's raised rates a lot and we haven't seen the effects yet," the firm's head of fixed income said on CNBC's "Closing Bell" Wednesday.

That means investors should have a combination of cash and carry, Weinstein said. He highlighted bank loans, emerging markets and high yield.

Once the 10-year Treasury note yield surpasses 4%, investors may want to consider adding duration to their fixed income portfolios, Weinstein added. Duration is a measurement of a bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates, and issues with longer maturities tend to have greater duration.

-Darla Mercado

Viasat sinks 20% after disclosing issue with new satellite

Viasat shares sank nearly 20% in extended trading after the company revealed an issue with its recently launched communications satellite.

The company said Wednesday that a malfunction occurred during the reflector deployment process which could inhibit the performance of its Viasat-3 Americas satellite launched in April.

"We're disappointed by the recent developments," Viasat CEO Mark Dankberg said in a statement.

— Michael Sheetz, Samantha Subin

Disney extends CEO Bob Iger's contract through 2026

Disney shares rose slightly in overnight trading after the entertainment company extended its contract with CEO Bob Iger through 2026.

Earlier this year, he told CNBC that he had no plans of staying on longer than two years in the position. He rejoined Disney as CEO last year following Bob Chapek's abrupt departure, with a contract slated to end in 2024.

— Sarah Whitten, Samantha Subin

Odds of more Fed rate hikes in 2H fade after June inflation report

The odds that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again, after its next meeting on July 26, have faded on the back of Wednesday's weaker-than-expected consumer price report for June.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, interest rate traders still see a 95% certainty that the central bank lifts its benchmark fed funds rates a quarter point, to 5.25%-5.50%, on July 26. But after that, things get dicey.

The chance that the Fed will go another quarter point at its September meeting (it skips August), has fallen to 13.3%, down from 22.3% on Tuesday and 18.1% a week ago. Odds that fed funds will stand a half point higher by the end of the Fed's Nov. 1 meeting are now 26.5% compared with 36.2% yesterday and 31.6% one week ago.

By the time of the Fed's last policy meeting of the year, on Dec. 13, odds that rates will be a half point higher than today's 5.00%-5.25%, have slumped to 20.8% now from 32.4% on Tuesday and 28% one week back.

Meanwhile, the odds that the Fed will have reversed this month's rate increase by yearend have risen to 14.9% from 10.2% yesterday and 12.6% last week.

— Scott Schnipper

Stock futures open marginally higher

Stock futures opened slightly higher in overnight trading Wednesday.

Futures tied to the S&P 500 rose 0.08%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.14%. Futures connected to the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 27 points, or 0.08%.

— Samantha Subin