politics

Pentagon Says Russian Troop Movements ‘Not a Real Withdrawal'; U.S. Warns of Global Food Insecurity

Turkish Presidency | Murat Cetinmuhurdar | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks ahead of the peace talks between delegations from Russia and Ukraine at Dolmabahce Presidential Office in Istanbul, Turkiye on March 29, 2022.

This has been CNBC's live blog covering Tuesday's updates on the war in Ukraine. [Follow the latest updates here.]

Russia claimed it would reduce its attacks on Ukraine as delegates from the two countries met for their latest face-to-face peace talks in Istanbul.

Moscow said it would cut back its military activity near Ukraine's capital of Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv, though Russia has not followed through on similar pledges in the past.

Ukrainian officials have pushed for a cease-fire agreement and a resolution to the humanitarian crisis sparked by Moscow's invasion. After the day's talks ended, an official from Ukraine's delegation called for an international security guarantee similar to NATO's Article 5.

'Nothing has changed': Russia is just buying time with negotiations, says think tank

Russia is trying to buy more time through negotiations with Ukraine, according to Melinda Haring of the Atlantic Council.

"It is an attempt for the Russians to buy more time so that they can come back in, regroup and come back stronger," said Haring, who is deputy director of the Atlantic Council's Eurasia Center.

Moscow said overnight that it will scale back its military activity near the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and the northern city of Chernihiv, but the Pentagon has cautioned it's not a retreat. Russia previously did not followed through with similar pledges.

"Nothing has changed today, that's the important point," Haring added.

"The bottom line is that Ukraine has to continue to fight, and fight very valiantly, and inflict major costs on Russia until Russia is ready to actually engage in real negotiations," The West will also need to continue to send defensive material to Ukraine, she added.

It will take "many more weeks and many more months" until the Russians will be willing to really negotiate, she said.

— Chelsea Ong

Russia's announcement is a 'distraction,' says professor

Russia's announcement that it is pulling its troops back from Kyiv is a "distraction" from their plan to move the "real fighting" to eastern Ukraine, says Christopher Miller, assistant professor of international history at The Fletcher School at Tufts University.

"[The announcement] is just a statement of the military reality that Ukrainians had pushed them back somewhat," Miller told CNBC's "Squawk Box Asia" on Wednesday.

U.K. and U.S. officials have recently made similar determinations{=null}. Military movements in Ukraine are difficult or impossible to confirm as the situation on the ground changes constantly.

The Donbas in eastern Ukraine will be crucial for Russia to "eke out something" that looks like a victory to sell to their populous, which is why Moscow is "doubling down" on this region, said Miller who is also co-director of the school's Russia and Eurasia program.

"It's trying to grab enough territory to package it as a success at home and justify the cost of this war, which was far higher than anyone in Russian government and certainly the Russian populace was setting up," he added.

"I don't think we're anywhere close to the end of the war at this point," Miller said.

— Chelsea Ong

Russia moves troops away from Kyiv, but Pentagon cautions it's not a retreat

Matthew Hatcher | Lightrocket | Getty Images
General view of the Retroville mall which was hit by a Russian missile late in the night.

The Russian military has begun to move some of its troops in Ukraine away from the areas around Kyiv to positions elsewhere in Ukraine, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said Tuesday.

The movements mark what the Pentagon says is a strategic shift in the invasion that began early on Feb. 24.

"Up until recently, we had still assessed that their plan was was to occupy and annex Ukraine using approaches along three lines of attack," Kirby told reporters at the Pentagon. "Now we think they're going to prioritize the east" of Ukraine.

Still, Kirby cautioned that the troop movements do not amount to a retreat, as some observers had speculated. "We believe that this is a repositioning, not a real withdrawal," he said.

Christina Wilkie

U.S. applauds the expulsion of 43 Russian intelligence officers from EU countries

Kevin Lemarque | Reuters
U.S. State Department Spokesman Ned Price speaks during a news briefing at the State Department in Washington, U.S., February 8, 2021.

The State Department welcomed a slew of recent expulsions of Russian intelligence officers serving under the cover of diplomatic missions in European countries.

In a coordinated move, Ireland, Belgium, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic expelled a total of 43 Russian diplomats suspected of spying. Poland also took similar steps in the past week.

"As our partners have outlined, these actions are in response to these individuals' activities, which are in contravention of their diplomatic status and the Russian Federation's aggression in Ukraine," wrote State Department spokesman Ned Price in a statement.

"We stand unified with our partners in protecting their national security from the Russian Federation's intelligence threats and against threats to democracy," Price added.

– Amanda Macias

U.S. warns of global food insecurity as Russian warships block exports from Ukraine

Thomas Peter | Reuters
People line up for food handed out by volunteers at a humanitarian aid distribution point, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Kharkiv, Ukraine, March 28, 2022.

Deputy U.S. Secretary of State Wendy Sherman warned that Russia's war in Ukraine has exacerbated a global food crisis already worsened by Covid-19.

"The responsibility for waging war on Ukraine and for the war's effects on global food security falls solely on President Putin," Sherman said in a speech at the United Nations.

Sherman said that Russian warships are blocking access to Ukraine's ports, essentially cutting off exports of grain. "They're reportedly preventing approximately 94 ships carrying food for the world market from reaching the Mediterranean," Sherman said, adding that food prices around the world are skyrocketing.

Sherman said that nearly half of Ukrainians are unable to access food. She added that people feel the war's effects on food security "far beyond Ukraine's borders."

"We are particularly concerned about countries like Lebanon, Pakistan, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen and Morocco which rely heavily on Ukrainian imports to feed their populations," she said.

– Amanda Macias

White House: Biden 'absolutely does not regret' saying Putin 'cannot remain in power'

Aleksandra Szmigiel | Reuters
U.S. President Joe Biden speaks during an event at the Royal Castle, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Warsaw, Poland, March 26, 2022.

President Joe Biden does not regret saying that Russian leader Vladimir Putin "cannot remain in power," the White House said in response to further questioning about the eyebrow-raising ad-lib in a speech on Saturday.

"Absolutely not, he spoke from the heart as he always does," White House communications director Kate Bedingfield said when asked at a press briefing if Biden regretted making the remark, which overshadowed the rest of the sweeping speech he delivered in Warsaw, Poland.

"He speaks from the heart, he says what he feels, and no, he absolutely does not regret that in any way," Bedingfield said.

Biden himself stood by the comment, telling reporters Monday that he was expressing "moral outrage" but not announcing a policy "to take Putin down."

Kevin Breuninger

Top U.S. commander in Europe says Russia has launched multiple hypersonic missiles

Win Mcnamee | Getty Images
General Tod Wolters, U.S. European Command and NATO's Supreme Allied Commander Europe, testifies before the Senate Armed Services Committee March 29, 2022 in Washington, DC.

America's top commander in Europe told lawmakers that the U.S. has observed multiple Russian launches of hypersonic weapons into Ukraine.

"I think it was to demonstrate the capability and attempt to put fear in the hearts of the enemy and I don't think they were successful," U.S. Air Force General and NATO Supreme Allied Commander Tod Wolters said during testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee. 

Wolters, who also serves as commander of U.S. European Command, did not specify the number of hypersonic missiles launched. The missiles travel five times faster than the speed of sound.

Last week, a senior U.S. Defense official who spoke on the condition of anonymity questioned why the Kremlin would need to fire a hypersonic missile "from not that far away" to hit a building in Ukraine.

Since Russia invaded its ex-Soviet neighbor last month, the Pentagon has observed more than 1,370 Russian missile launches into Ukraine.

Wolters also told lawmakers that the U.S. believes Russian President Vladimir Putin has dedicated about 75% of his entire military force to the fight in Ukraine.

– Amanda Macias

Firemen work to control a blaze at fuel storage facility in the Rivne region

Firemen work to control a blaze at a large fuel base located near Ukraine's western settlement of Klevan in the Rivne region. The facility supplies fuel to Kyiv for the Ukrainian army.

Russia hit the structure with high-precision air-launched cruise missiles.

Ukrainian State Service | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Fire extinguishing works are underway at a large fuel base located near Ukraine's western settlement of Klevan in the Rivne region and supplying fuel to Kyiv for the Ukrainian army, which was hit with high-precision air-launched cruise missiles by Russia, on March 28, 2022.
State Emergency Service Of Ukraine | Reuters
Rescuers work at a site of fuel storage facilities hit by cruise missiles, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Rivne region, in this handout picture released March 29, 2022. 
State Emergency Service Of Ukraine | Reuters
Rescuers work at a site of fuel storage facilities hit by cruise missiles, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Rivne region, in this handout picture released March 29, 2022. 
Ukrainian State Service | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Fire extinguishing works are underway at a large fuel base located near Ukraine's western settlement of Klevan in the Rivne region and supplying fuel to Kyiv for the Ukrainian army, which was hit with high-precision air-launched cruise missiles by Russia, on March 28, 2022. 

— Getty Images / Reuters

Biden and European leaders discussed economic retaliation against Russia, aid to Ukraine

U.S. President Joe Biden and four key European leaders discussed efforts to hamper Russia's economy and provide military and humanitarian aid to Ukraine during a hastily arranged call.

Biden spoke with U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi as Ukrainian and Russian officials held peace talks in Istanbul. The four officials lead the largest economies in Europe.

"The leaders affirmed their determination to continue raising costs on Russia for its brutal attacks in Ukraine, as well as to continue supplying Ukraine with security assistance to defend itself against this unjustified and unprovoked assault," the White House said in a readout of the call.

"They reviewed their efforts to provide humanitarian assistance to the millions affected by the violence, both inside Ukraine and seeking refuge in other countries, and underscored the need for humanitarian access to civilians in Mariupol," it continued. "They also discussed the importance of supporting stable energy markets in light of current disruptions due to sanctions."

Neither the Biden administration readout nor a similar summary from the U.K. government mentioned Russia's claim that it would scale back military operations near Ukraine's capital of Kyiv.

— Jacob Pramuk

At least 1,179 killed and 1,860 injured in Ukraine, UN says

Yuriy Dyachyshyn | AFP | Getty Images
Relatives attend a ceremony at the funeral of the soldier Teodor Osadchyi, killed during the Russian invasion, at Lychakiv cemetery in Lviv, western Ukraine, on March 29, 2022.

Russian forces have killed at least 1,179 civilians since Moscow invaded Ukraine, according to the United Nations.

At least an additional 1,860 people were injured, including 74 children, from Feb. 24 through March 28, the Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights said.

The majority of deaths recorded were caused by explosive weapons with a "wide impact area," the office said. That includes shelling from heavy artillery and airstrikes.

The agency said it believes the actual number of casualties are "considerably higher," since information from areas with intense fighting is delayed and some reports are being corroborated.

– Amanda Macias

U.K. seizes $50 million Russian-owned superyacht 'Phi'

James Manning | Pa Images | Getty Images
The superyacht Phi owned by a Russian businessman in Canary Wharf, east London which has been detained as part of sanctions against Russia.

A $50 million Russian-owned superyacht docked in London's Canary Wharf financial district was detained by British authorities.

Motoryacht Phi, designed by shipbuilders Royal Huisman, includes an "infinite wine cellar" and a patented fresh-water swimming pool, according to Britain's National Crime Agency.

"The ownership of the yacht was deliberately well hidden. The company the ship is registered to is based in the islands of Saint Kitts and Nevis and it carried Maltese flags to hide its origins," the U.K. National Crime Agency wrote in a statement.

U.K. Transportation Secretary Grant Shapps said that the detention of the yacht "turned an icon of Russia's power and wealth into a clear and stark warning to Putin and his cronies."

"Detaining the Phi, proves, yet again, that we can and will take the strongest possible action against those seeking to benefit from Russian connections," Shapps added.

– Amanda Macias

Regional administration building hit by cruise missiles in Mykolaiv

Rescuers work at a site of a regional administration building hit by cruise missiles in Mykolaiv, a city in southern Ukraine.

Editors Note: Images may contain graphic content

Bulent Kilic | AFP | Getty Images
Rescue workers look at the rubble of government building hit by Russian rockets in Mykolaiv on March 29, 2022.
Bulent Kilic | AFP | Getty Images
EDITORS NOTE: Graphic content: Firefighters carry a dead body from the rubble of a government building hit by Russian rockets in Mykolaiv on March 29, 2022.
State Emergency Service | Reuters
A rescuer helps a person to be evacuated from of the regional administration building hit by cruise missiles, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Mykolaiv, in this handout picture released March 29, 2022. 
State Emergency Service | Reuters
Rescuers evacuate a person from of the regional administration building hit by cruise missiles, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Mykolaiv, in this handout picture released March 29, 2022. 
State Emergency Service of Ukraine | Reuters
Rescuers work at a site of the regional administration building hit by cruise missiles, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in Mykolaiv, in this handout picture released March 29, 2022. 

— Getty Images / Reuters

No indications Ukraine and Russia peace talks are progressing, U.S. says

Olivier Douliery | Reuters
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken meets with U.S. embassy staff at the Swissotel in Tallinn, Estonia March 8, 2022.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the U.S. has not seen indications that cease-fire talks between Ukraine and Russia are progressing.

"I've not seen anything that suggests that this is moving forward," the nation's top diplomat said during a press conference in Morocco when asked about Russia's claim that it will reduce military operations near Kyiv. He added that the U.S. still sees significant Russian military campaigns throughout Ukraine.

"I will leave it to our Ukrainian partners to characterize whether there is any type of progress and whether Russia is engaging meaningfully," Blinken said.

"There is what Russia says and there's what Russia does, we are focused on the latter," he added.

– Amanda Macias

Ukraine calls for international agreement for security guarantees akin to NATO Article 5

Yasin Akgul | AFP | Getty Images
Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak (C) speaks to the press after first Russia and Ukraine face-to-face talks in weeks at Dolmabahce palace in Istanbul, on March 29, 2022, to end the nearly five-week-old war which has killed an estimated 20,000 people.

Ukrainian negotiators involved in ceasefire talks with Russian representatives said they want to establish an international agreement under which other nations would guarantee Ukraine's security. 

David Arakhamia, a member of Ukraine's delegation, pushed for an international security guarantee that would operate in a similar way to NATO's Article 5, where an attack against one member country is viewed as an attack against all members.

He said guarantor countries could include United Nations Security Council member states the U.S., United Kingdom, China, Russia and France as well as other countries like Turkey, Canada, Germany, Italy, Poland and Israel. He added that other countries that wish to join will have the opportunity to do so.

Arakhamia said the agreement, which will not include Donbas or Crimea, must first be approved in a referendum by Ukrainians and then ratified by the parliaments of Ukraine and the guarantor countries.

– Amanda Macias

Biden convenes a last-minute call with the "Big 4" European leaders

The White House | Handout | Reuters
U.S. President Joe Biden is seen in a White House handout photo as he speaks with European leaders about Russia and the situation in Ukraine during a secure video teleconference from the Situation Room of the White House in Washington, January 24, 2022.

President Joe Biden will host a secure call with the leaders of the "Big 4" most developed nations in Europe to discuss developments in Ukraine. He will speak with President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, Prime Minister Mario Draghi of Italy and Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom.

The White House announced the call had been added to Biden's schedule less than an hour before the scheduled start time.

The meeting comes shortly after a Russian negotiator, Alexander Fomin, claimed that the Kremlin has "decided to drastically, at times, reduce military activity" around the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and northern city of Chernihiv.

"We proceed from the fact that the relevant basic decisions will be made in Kyiv and conditions should be created for further normal work," Fomin said, according to an NBC translation. "The General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces will report in more detail upon the return of our delegation to Moscow."

— Christina Wilkie

Russia claims it will reduce military activity around Kyiv

Murat Cetinmuhurdar | Reuters
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan addresses Russian and Ukrainian negotiators before their face-to-face talks in Istanbul, Turkey March 29, 2022. 

Russia's deputy defense minister claimed Moscow has decided to "drastically" cut back its military activity near Ukraine's capital.

Alexander Fomin, who spoke following negotiations in Instabul, said Russia would slow its military operations near Kyiv and Chernihiv in order for peace talks to progress. Russia has previously claimed that it would reduce military operations in other parts of Ukraine but then continued its advance.

Fomin added that the Russian Ministry of Defense will give further details "upon the return of our delegation to Moscow."

Growing hope for a ceasefire appeared to boost investor sentiment, as Dow Jones Industrial Average futures rose 200 points or 0.6%. S&P 500 futures also climbed 0.6%, while Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.7%.

The price of U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude oil, which spiked on the heels of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, fell more than 4% to $100 per barrel.

– Amanda Macias

Ukraine International Airlines extends flight suspension through May 31

STR | Nurphoto | Getty Images
Aircrafts of the UIA (Ukraine International Airlines) airline is seen on the apron of Boryspil International airport near Kiev, Ukraine, 25 April, 2018.

Ukraine's largest airline tells customers that flights will be suspended through at least May 31 as Russia's attacks on the country continue. Ukraine International Airlines had previously scrapped all flights through April 15.

"Given the difficult situation under martial law, the air carrier draws attention to the possibility of forced delays and feedback complications on the service channels of communication with passengers and counts on understanding," the carrier said.

The war has closed the airspace over Ukraine. Reciprocal sanctions with Russia have meant longer flights as airlines avoid Russian airspace and vice versa and roiled the aviation market with hundreds of foreign-owned planes stuck in the country.

Leslie Josephs

Ukrainian troops battle Russian forces in Zaporizhzhia region

Members of the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps fight against Russian troops in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia region.

Stanislav Yurchenko | Reuters
Members of the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps fire with a howitzer, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, at a position in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine March 28, 2022. 
Stanislav Yurchenko | Reuters
A member of the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps fires with a howitzer, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, at a position in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine March 28, 2022. Picture taken March 28, 2022. REUTERS/Stanislav Yurchenko
Stanislav Yurchenko | Reuters
Members of the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps prepare howitzer, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, at a position in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine March 28, 2022. Picture taken March 28, 2022. 
Stanislav Yurchenko | Reuters
A member of the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps rests next to a howitzer, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, at a position in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine March 28, 2022. Picture taken March 28, 2022. 
Stanislav Yurchenko | Reuters
A member of the Ukrainian Volunteer Corps rests next to a howitzer, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, at a position in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine March 28, 2022. Picture taken March 28, 2022. 

— Reuters

Ukraine opens 3 humanitarian corridors

Joe Raedle | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Sywasz Elizabeth, Samarska Ludmyla and Pylypenko Arsenij wait on a bus after arriving safely on a train from the besieged city of Mariupol that is under Russian military attack on March 22, 2022 in Lviv, Ukraine.

Three humanitarian corridors have been opened in Ukraine on Tuesday, according to Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk.

The corridors will allow civilians to evacuate from the cities of Melitopol and Mariupol, with two separate routes operating in the latter to allow evacuations via government-run buses or private transport.

It comes after no humanitarian corridors were opened on Monday, with Ukrainian officials saying they feared a Russian attack on evacuation routes was looming.

— Chloe Taylor

3 missiles shot down near Lviv, official says

Maksym Kozytskiy, governor of Ukraine's Lviv region, said Tuesday that Ukraine's air defense systems had shot down three missiles over the district of Zolochiv — around 65 kilometers (40 miles) east of the city of Lviv.

Kozytskiy said there was no threat to residents of the Zolochiv district and that no one was hurt in the incident.  

Lviv, a city in western Ukraine, had until recently avoided being the scene of active hostilities, with many Ukrainians settling there after fleeing conflict zones elsewhere in the country. According to Kozytskiy, more than 257,000 Ukrainians have resettled in the Lviv region since the beginning of the war.

— Chloe Taylor

Russia continuing to attack residential areas, Ukrainian officials say

Andres Gutierrez | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
A view of a heavily damaged building after shelling at the Vitryani Hory area in Kyiv, Ukraine on March 27, 2022.

"The Russian enemy continues to insidiously launch missile and bomb strikes, trying to completely destroy the infrastructure and residential areas of Ukrainian cities," Ukraine's armed forces said in an update on Tuesday.

"It concentrates on fuel storage, in order to complicate logistics and create conditions for a humanitarian crisis."

The update accused Moscow's forces of violating international humanitarian law in "temporarily occupied" settlements in the regions of Kyiv, Zaporizhzhia, Chernihiv, Kherson and Kharkiv. According to the Ukrainian armed forces, Russian troops were continuing to shell residential buildings, and were taking hostages and engaging in looting across Ukraine.

A spokesperson for the Russian government was not immediately available for comment when contacted by CNBC.

Officials said Ukrainian forces had held off several Russian attacks on Monday, noting that Russian forces were continuing their attempt to gain ground from the east, southeast and northeast.

— Chloe Taylor

Roman Abramovich is at Russia-Ukraine talks in Istanbul, Russian state media says

Cem Ozdel | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Russian businessman Roman Abramovich (L) attends the peace talks between delegations from Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul, Turkiye on March 29, 2022. (Photo by Cem Ozdel/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)

Russian state-controlled news agency RIA has reported that billionaire oligarch Roman Abramovich is in attendance at the talks between Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul.

Abramovich, who has been subjected to Western sanctions since Russia invaded Ukraine, reportedly spoke to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ahead of the talks.

— Chloe Taylor

UN nuclear agency working to avert nuclear disaster in Ukraine

Rafael Mariano Grossi, head of U.N. nuclear agency the IAEA, has traveled to Ukraine to meet with senior government officials in a bid "to ensure the safety and security of the country's nuclear facilities."

Grossi will hold talks with Ukrainian officials about the delivery of urgent technical assistance, the IAEA said Tuesday, aimed at helping to avert the risk of an accident that could endanger people and the environment.

IAEA experts will be sent to "prioritized facilities," the organization also said in its statement Tuesday, and the agency would send vital safety and security supplies to Ukraine.

"The military conflict is putting Ukraine's nuclear power plants and other facilities with radioactive material in unprecedented danger," Grossi said in a statement. "We must take urgent action to make sure that they can continue to operate safely and securely and reduce the risk of a nuclear accident."

During his visit to Ukraine, Grossi will visit one of the country's nuclear power plants, the IAEA said.

Earlier this month, Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant — the largest in Europe — caught fire after coming under attack by Russian troops.

— Chloe Taylor

144 children have died in war so far, Ukraine says

Dimitar Dilkoff | AFP | Getty Images
Abandoned strollers are pictured under a destroyed bridge as people walked across the collapsed concrete to flee Irpin, a northwest suburb of Kyiv, on March 7, 2022.

Ukraine's Human Rights Commissioner Liudmyla Denisova said Tuesday that 144 children have died so far in the war.

A further 220 children have been injured in the conflict, Denisova said in a post on the messenger app Telegram.

— Chloe Taylor

Ukraine war could cause a recession in Germany, thinktank says

Unkel | ullstein bild | Getty Images
An apprentice in the profession welder is working in a training center in Siegburg, Germany.

The German economy will grow by 2.1% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023, thinktank IMK said in an updated forecast on Tuesday.

But it also said a slight recession is also possible in its 2022 risk scenario, the organization added.

In its previous forecast, IMK had predicted Germany's economy would grow by 4.5% this year, and had not made any forecasts for next year.

"The war in Ukraine is … making recovery after the corona pandemic considerably more difficult," researchers said.

The forecast of 2.1% GDP growth this year was what IMK expected in its baseline scenario — but if a "more unfavorable risk scenario with much higher energy prices occurs," analysts predicted that German GDP could shrink by 0.3% in 2022.

In the risk-on environment, GDP growth could fall to 1.4% in 2023, the forecast added.

In the baseline scenario, German inflation was predicted to hit 6.2% this year — but that figure could rise to 8.2% in the risk scenario, IMK said.

An abrupt interruption of energy supplies from Russia, either due to a German embargo or a Russian supply freeze, would cause a deep recession in Germany this year, IMK also warned. This situation would see German GDP shrink "significantly more than in the risk scenario," researchers said.

— Chloe Taylor

Russia-Ukraine talks set to begin in Istanbul

A spokesperson for the Turkish Foreign Ministry has told NBC News that talks between Russia and Ukraine will begin at 10:30 a.m. Istanbul time (3:30 a.m. ET). He added that it was possible there may be some delays.

Arda Kucukkaya | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan speaks ahead of the peace talks between delegations from Russia and Ukraine at Dolmabahce Presidential Office in Istanbul, Turkiye on March 29, 2022.
Turkish Presidency | Murat Cetinmuhurdar | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets Russian and Ukrainian delegations ahead of the peace talks at Dolmabahce Presidential Office in Istanbul, Turkiye on March 29, 2022.
Arda Kucukkaya | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet at Dolmabahce Presidential Office for the peace talks in Istanbul, Turkiye on March 29, 2022.
Arda Kucukkaya | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Russian and Ukrainian delegations meet at Dolmabahce Presidential Office for the peace talks in Istanbul, Turkiye on March 29, 2022.

— Chloe Taylor

Japan to ban export of luxury items to Russia

Japan has announced it will ban the export of luxury goods to Russia from April 5.

Goods in the export ban will include luxury cars, cosmetics and art.

— Chloe Taylor

Face-to-face talks to resume in Turkey

Turkish Presidency | Murat Cetinmuhurdar | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan meets Russian and Ukrainian delegations ahead of the peace talks at Dolmabahce Presidential Office in Istanbul, Turkiye on March 29, 2022.

Face-to-face talks between Russian and Ukrainian delegates are set to resume in Istanbul today.

Delegations from both countries touched down in Turkey on Monday.

But both sides have suggested officials are not yet close to securing an agreement.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Ukrainian television yesterday that "nothing is agreed upon unless everything is agreed upon."

He said the minimum Ukraine was hoping to secure was a solution to the humanitarian crises arising from the war, while the maximum the country's officials were hoping to achieve was a cease-fire.

"Everything can change at any moment," he said. "At the moment the principal points do not have solid agreements. There is an exchange of thoughts, positions, creative ideas, but there are no decisions yet. Moreover, agreeing on one point does not mean the agreement as a whole will work in integral format."

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said in a televised interview on Monday that the delegations "still don't have a clear understanding on our main points."

— Chloe Taylor

Ukraine foreign minister calls for Russian Z symbol to be criminalized

— Chloe Taylor

Russia reorganizing and resetting its forces, UK says

Gleb Garanich | Reuters
A Ukrainian serviceman stands near the wreck of a Russian tank on the front line in the Kyiv region, Ukraine March 28, 2022.

Ukrainian forces are continuing to carry out localized counterattacks to Kyiv's northwest, the U.K. Ministry of Defense said Tuesday.

"These attacks have had some success and the Russians have been pushed back from a number of positions," the ministry said in an intelligence update. "However, Russia still poses a significant threat to the city through their strike capability."

The ministry added that the besieged port city of Mariupol remains under Ukrainian control, despite continuous Russian shelling.

"Elsewhere, Russian Forces are maintaining blocking positions while attempting to reorganize and reset their forces," British officials said.

— Chloe Taylor

Read CNBC’s previous live coverage here:

You can read Monday's live coverage on the war in Ukraine here:

Ukraine suspends evacuations amid safety fears; Russia, Ukraine prepare for face-to-face talks

UN agency estimates nearly 3,000 civilians have been injured or killed

Andres Gutierrez | Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
A view of a heavily damaged building after shelling at the Vitryani Hory area in Kyiv, Ukraine on March 27, 2022.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has exacted a heavy toll with a total 2,975 civilian casualties recorded since the conflict began more than a month ago, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights.

Among those 1,151 were killed, including 103 children, between Feb. 24 and March 27, the UN agency said in its Monday update.

The agency said most of the civilian casualties recorded were caused by the "use of explosive weapons with a wide impact area, including shelling from heavy artillery and multiple launch rocket systems, and missile and air strikes."

UNHCR cautioned, however, the actual figures are considerably higher since the information from "some locations where intense hostilities have been going on has been delayed and many reports are still pending corroboration."

—Sumathi Bala

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