Despite voter registration increasing by tens of thousands of people in San Diego County, turnout is not on track to exceed the 80% participation predicted by the Registrar of Voters.
“The turnout estimate was just an estimate ... We have no insights beyond that and can’t speculate as to the myriad of reasons as to why one chooses to participate or not participate in any given election,” said the Registrar in a statement to NBC 7.
As of Monday, voter turnout in the 2024 general election is some 10% lower than it was in 2020. However, the turnout number will increase as the final votes are tallied.
“California didn't have particularly high turnout. We were below the national average, whereas we were above the national average when people were excited about Joe Biden's candidacy in 2020,” said Thad Kousser, a political science professor at UC San Diego. “I don't think we can pin this on the Harris campaign, which seemed to be relatively successful, but just overall, Democrats looking at the economy, looking at the direction of the country, weren't energized by this election.”
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The president of the San Diego County Young Democrats believes a lack of enthusiasm within her party boils down to a single issue: the economy.
“Democrats are going to have to get better about talking about the economy and what we're going to do for young people,” Codi Vierra said.
The message from local Democrats, however, appears to have resonated. Seats in Congress and on the County Board of Supervisors that were considered competitive stayed blue.
Decision 2024
"We've been able to actually accomplish some good things with regard to housing and climate and a lot of issues that people here and young people care about," Vierra said.
The president of the San Diego Young Democrats feels local issues also drove participation within her party. She said young voters are often more engaged than people assume.
“At the top of the ticket, although it does take up most of the oxygen in the room for San Diego Young Republicans, we really emphasize most that local politics is where a lot of the action takes place,” Cynthia Kaui said.
The lower turnout could have contributed to the death of the San Diego city and county-wide sales tax measures, both of which are failing by slim margins as of Monday.
“We had complex international conflicts that may have depressed Democratic turnout, and we had people not excited about the direction of the country and where the Biden-Harris administration had taken it,” Kousser said. “Those are things that are sort of outside your control if you're a local campaign or candidate trying to break through the national mood.”
