Is San Diego County becoming a "blue" county -- politically speaking?
Has the Republican Party lost its edge? Those questions arise in the wake of the latest voter registration numbers released by the County Registrar's office -- showing the local GOP's strength down by nearly eight percent from four years ago at this same time.
"I think it (San Diego County) is certainly, at this point, a purple county," said Jess Durfee, spokesman for the county Democratic Party. "And we are transitioning to a blue county."
A month before the 2004 Presidential Election, local GOP voters outnumbered Democrats by 80,000 out of a total electorate of 1.4 million. Four years later, the Republicans' lead is down to 18,000, with only a 5,000-voter increase in the size of the electorate.
In raw numbers, there are 45,000 fewer Republican voters countywide than four years ago, while registered Democrats have become more numerous by nearly 17,000 -- a gain of 3.4 percent.
In terms of voter ratios, the GOP now comprises 37.1 percent of the local electorate -- down from 2004's lead by more than three points -- while Democrats account for 35.9 percent, up by more than one point.
During that same span, the number of nonpartisan and other-party voters rose by more than 33,000 -- to about 27 percent of the electorate, a gain of 1.3 points.
What gives?
"George Bush has worn out his welcome," said John Dadian, a local political consultant who works extensively with Republican causes.
In an interview with NBC 7/39, Dadian also cited the Obama factor.
"He has, throughout the nation, really galvanized and gotten new (Democratic) registrants," Dadian said.
Durfee told NBC 7/39 that the Democrats' Presidential nominee, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois has an "extreme, almost rock star-type status" that spurred interest in his candidacy.
That, coupled with burgeoning Democratic voter registrations during the party's long nominating campaign, has spurred a trend which -- if sustained for two or three months -- could result in local Democrats overtaking the GOP in voting strength, Durfee said.
"And I don't see that trend dropping off," he said, predicting further momentum from an Obama victory in next month's election.
Dadian disagrees: "The Democrats are just taking in the registrants. The Republicans are out there trying to get them. So I see that pro-activeness lasting for several more years."
Local GOP officials attribute some of the change to what they claim is voter fraud, identify theft and intimidation of Republican registration workers on the part of operatives working on behalf of Democrats.
Lawyers representing the Republican Party have filed complaints with the San Diego District Attorney's office, seeking an investigation into the allegations.
A spokesman for the D.A.'s office declined comment on those issue
